Vikings fans got a roller-coaster ride watching their favorite team during the regular season, with soaring highs and rock-bottom lows, heart-pounding endings and even some broken records. And a whole lot of unpredictability.
The Vikings (13-4) head into the playoffs with one of the best records in franchise history. But there are a lot of skeptics questioning whether their regular-season success will translate into a long postseason run.
The season was bookended by two healthy wins against division rivals. In between, they won by a tight margin or lost big.
Eleven of their 17 games were decided by one score — eight points or fewer. And they won them all.
They set an NFL record for the most one-score victories in a season, beating the 10-victory record previously held by the 2019 Seattle Seahawks and 1978 Houston Oilers.
Last year, the Vikings played in 14 games that were decided by one score, but won only six of them.
Kirk Cousins also became the first quarterback to lead eight fourth-quarter comebacks in a season.
He set that record in one of the wildest games: the Dec. 17 matchup with the Indianapolis Colts at U.S. Bank Stadium. It also happened to be the Vikings' 1,000th game.
And now it's in the record books as the greatest comeback in NFL history.
Down 33-0 at halftime, the Vikings didn't look like a winning team. Fans streamed out of the stadium, certain it would yield another humiliating loss. Those who stayed, though, got quite the show.
With just over eight minutes left in the third quarter, receiver K.J. Osborn scored the Vikings' first points of the day. The Vikings scored four more touchdowns to tie the game, just before the two-minute warning. The defense held the Colts to just three points in the second half and overtime. Kicker Greg Joseph nailed a 40-yard field goal with three seconds left in overtime to seal the win.
It wasn't just that the Vikings' game endings were nail-biters. A look at the game scores at the end of each quarter shows a similar pattern in most games — either the game was within one score or the Vikings were getting blown away.
There were eight games in which the score was either tied or within one score at halftime. The Vikings won seven of those (the loss was to Detroit).
One reason games were consistently tight in the fourth quarter: The Vikings struggled in third quarters, being outscored by 48 points. They outscored opponents by 78 points in fourth quarters.
Despite all the amazing comeback wins, Vikings fans also had to endure a few crushing losses — almost all to playoff teams.
In those four losses, the Vikings were outscored 139-50. Against Dallas, the Vikings mustered just a field goal in the first quarter and that was it.
Possibly the most interesting way to visualize the wild season is to look at play-by-play win probability data, obtained from ESPN.
Most of the time, the Vikings started games with a win probability below 50%, or maybe in the low 60s. Exceptions were both Bears games and the Colts game, all favoring the Vikings by more than 70%.
On almost every winning game (except the finale against the Bears), the Vikings were at or below 50% win probability at some point — sometimes multiple points — and had to rally.
There were only two games the Vikings won that started with a win probability below 50%. Week 1 against the Packers, which was a rare game that they won by more than one score, and the stunning win against the Bills in November.
With less than two minutes left in the third quarter, the Bills kicked a field goal to increase their lead to 27-10. The Vikings' win probability rating dropped to 3%.
On the next offensive play, Vikings running back Dalvin Cook ran 81 yards for a touchdown. But the game almost slipped out of their grasp on the Vikings' next offensive possession. It was fourth down, with 18 yards to go. Cousins launched a 32-yard pass to Justin Jefferson, who miraculously hauled it in with one hand, while a Bills defender tried to steal it away. The first down kept the Vikings alive and there were more twists and turns from there.
Was it luck? Sheer talent? All of the above?
Those questions were being asked not just of that game, but of the entire Vikings season, with many wondering if they can keep it up in the playoffs.
History shows that more than 60% of the team's playoff wins have either been unexpected or were one-score games.
But fans know all too well the Vikings have lost more playoff games than they've won and are well-known for heartbreakers, such as a 41-0 NFC Championship loss to the New York Giants in the 2000 season that ranks as the biggest playoff loss in team history.
Out of the Vikings' 61 playoff games, there were seven games they lost despite being favored to win and 23 other losses that were expected or the probabilities were mainly a tossup, according to the Star Tribune's analysis of Elo ratings and game outcomes compiled by FiveThirtyEight.com.
The unexpected losses include one that Vikings fans talk about all the time: the 1998 NFC Championship game against the Atlanta Falcons, which the Vikings, who finished the regular season 15-1, lost after missing a field goal that could've given the team a 10-point lead. Instead, the Falcons rallied and won the game by three points.
But out of their 21 playoff wins, the Vikings were underdogs in eight and five were by one score. That includes the wild-card game against the New Orleans Saints in their last playoff run (2019 season), which the Vikings won by six points in overtime.
And, don't forget, their last playoff home game (during the 2017 season) will forever be remembered for that last-second, extremely unpredictable win over the Saints that has been dubbed the Minneapolis Miracle.