If the Gophers don't make the NCAA tournament, they can't use Al Nolen's injury as an excuse. Or Mo Walker's.

Yes, Devoe Joseph left the program in midseason -- but his departure didn't thwart their postseason plans, either.

Despite all of the drama the Gophers have encountered in recent months, they have missed multiple chances to preserve their shot at the NCAA tournament because of late-game calamity.

In the closing minutes of their crucial February matchups, the Gophers have fallen apart and distanced themselves from an at-large bid.

Their 70-63 loss to Michigan on Saturday at Williams Arena -- their fourth home loss in a row -- resembled the rest of their "must-win" opportunities this month. They took a late lead but couldn't keep it.

The Wolverines (18-12, 8-9 Big Ten) finished with an 11-1 run. Michigan State outscored the Gophers 14-1 down the stretch on its way to a 53-48 victory at Williams Arena on Tuesday. The Gophers (17-11, 6-10) also fell apart at the end against Penn State and Illinois in recent weeks.

Those losses, however, didn't crush the Gophers' hopes like the loss to Michigan might have. Coach Tubby Smith said he told his players that their NCAA tournament dreams probably died Saturday.

"I just told them how disappointing it is and that this is a game that probably, it does it in for us," Smith said. "We can't win at home against a team we're supposed to beat and we beat at their place. We're not missing but one guy, really. That's the disappointing part about it."

Their undersized opponents -- Michigan used 6-4 Zack Novak and 6-4 Darius Morris to defend Gophers post players throughout the game -- showed poise, while the home team stumbled in the final five minutes.

Blake Hoffarber (18 points, six assists) tried to force a pass inside to Trevor Mbakwe that resulted in a turnover. Mbakwe (18 points, nine rebounds) missed a critical layup. Rodney Williams, an elite jumper, got stuffed on another.

Yet all seemed well for the Gophers when Hoffarber put his team ahead 62-59 on a putback with 3 minutes, 14 seconds to go.

It was the Gophers' last basket. Tim Hardway Jr. pulled Michigan within one on a layup with 2:54 to go, and after misses by Williams and Mbakwe at the other end, Novak hit a three-pointer with 1:38 remaining for a 64-62 Wolverines lead.

Novak then intercepted Williams' pass to Ralph Sampson III inside, a play drawn up during a timeout, as Hoffarber tussled with a defender.

Morris, who recorded 17 points and seven assists, sprinted upcourt, made a layup and drew a foul on Mbakwe, a three-point play that gave Michigan a five-point lead with 48 seconds remaining on the Gophers' NCAA tournament aspirations.

Hardaway, who hit his first four three-point tries and scored a game-high 22 points, finished the Gophers off by connecting on three of four free throws in the final nine seconds.

"Just careless turnovers. There's no reason for those turnovers at the end," Smith said. "There's no reason for Blake to try to throw the ball in there. None whatsoever. There's no reason for Rodney to throw a little lob pass in there. There's no reason for Ralph not to get it, but he didn't."

And there's no reason for the NCAA selection committee to pick the Gophers, losers of seven of eight after a 16-4 start. Barring a run that rivals their three-victory effort in last year's Big Ten tournament, they probably will miss the March Madness festivities for the first time since the 2007-08 season, Smith's first here.

Mbakwe said he still believes his team can earn a trip to the NCAA tournament.

"This team fought hard last year to get into the tournament," he said. "This year's no different."

And that's the problem.