At RNC, Trump's inner circle adamant they can turn Minnesota red for first time since 1972

MILWAUKEE – Minnesota was the talk of former President Donald Trump's orbit during the Republican National Convention.

RNC Co-Chairwoman Lara Trump told Pennsylvania delegates she now considers the North Star state a battleground, Trump GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio told Florida delegates Minnesota is a toss-up and Trump senior advisor Chris LaCivita said during a breakfast in Milwaukee that polling has indicated Minnesota is "consistently plus two" in Trump's favor.

In announcing JD Vance as his vice presidential pick, Trump said on his Truth Social account that the first-term senator from Ohio would likely appeal to voters in the Midwest, including Minnesota.

The Trump campaign's remarks came as it has started ramping up efforts to flip Minnesota in November. Rep. Tom Emmer, Trump's state chair, solidified the claim from the RNC stage this week, saying he is confident Minnesota will "make history this November when we turn Minnesota red for the first time in 50 years."

The Trump campaign just hired two top staffers in Minnesota and announced it plans to open eight field offices in the state. And recent polls on the race have been close.

"We think we are going to win Minnesota," Minnesota GOP deputy chair Donna Bergstrom said. "People are at the breaking point where they're seeing gas prices keep going up, inflation going up."

When the Trump campaign put Minnesota on its radar as a new pickup opportunity, it also added Virginia.

On Tuesday evening, a number of Trump-endorsed Republican U.S. Senate candidates took the RNC stage, including Hung Cao from Virginia. But missing was Royce White, Minnesota's Republican-endorsed Senate candidate, who has faced a slew of controversies. He's not received Trump's backing and the Trump campaign did not say if it would weigh in the race when asked.

"These Senate candidates are projected to win their seats," Kelly Fenton, a former Republican Party deputy chair and state legislator, said as the other Republican Senate candidates took the stage. "I believe that the Senate race in Minnesota is currently not winnable. Is it possible that Trump flips Minnesota in the presidential? Yes. But I do not think that the Senate candidate is included in that."

White's campaign did not respond to a request for comment on whether he was invited to attend the RNC.

Heading into November, President Joe Biden's debate performance and standing in recent polls is playing in Trump's favor across the map, said Larry Jacobs, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance. He said the exception could be Minnesota.

"Those favorable conditions for Donald Trump may be offset by a Royce White candidacy," Jacobs said. [He's] a weak candidate who's got a troubled record up against a candidate killer in Amy Klobuchar, who's popular, has got a large war chest and a powerful campaign organization," adding that the "Klobuchar effect" may offset some of the favorable conditions helping Trump in other states.

Jacobs was referring to Klobuchar's effect on down-ballot races. A Star Tribune analysis of historical voter data found a correlation between election years when Klobuchar is on the ballot and better results for Democrats in other races. Klobuchar has consistently won a larger percentage of the vote than other statewide candidates, and every year she's run, the DFL has won whichever chambers of the Legislature were on the ballot.

Bergstrom disagreed with Jacobs, saying she does not think White will drag down Trump. "I think the top of the ticket is where everybody is focused," she said, adding that White still has to make it through the August primary election, where former Navy intelligence officer Joe Fraser is also running on the GOP side.

Regardless of who wins the Republican Senate primary, Minnesota DFL chairman Ken Martin said he thinks the Trump campaign's confidence about flipping the North Star state is misplaced. The state hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon in 1972.

Early voting for the presidential election starts in just two months, and Martin said he's yet to see the Trump campaign establish a field operation in Minnesota. The Trump campaign had set up shop in Minnesota by this point in 2016 and 2020, but not this year, Martin said.

"We've had offices open in this state for several months now, over 20 offices. We have hundreds of organizers on the ground, thousands of volunteers every single day talking to voters," Martin said. "You can talk all you want about how you're going to put Minnesota into play, but I haven't seen anything yet that suggests they're serious about that."

Staff writer Briana Bierschbach contributed to this report.