Battle to control Minnesota Legislature hinges on suburbs

Minnesota voters will soon decide the political makeup of one of the last divided legislatures in the country, settling a monthslong campaign to influence some of the biggest issues facing the state, including how to spend a historic multibillion-dollar budget surplus.

State and national Republicans are optimistic about their chances to flip the Minnesota House and maintain control in the state Senate, given headwinds for Democrats as the party in power in Washington. But demographic shifts and the state's new redistricting maps have put more seats in contention in the suburbs, where Democrats say they're mobilizing their voters after the Supreme Court overturned federal abortion protections in the Dobbs v. Jackson decision.

"Traditionally, the midterm is tough for the party who has their president in the White House. However, we have a new map and we have Dobbs," said DFL House Speaker Melissa Hortman. "We have 50 years of Supreme Court precedent activating most of the women in the country."

While top-of-the ticket races tend to get more attention, millions of dollars have already been spent on the outcome of the legislative battle, which will be decided in fewer than two dozen competitive districts out of 201 seats across the state. In a midterm election, it will also come down to which party does a better job of motivating their supporters to get out and vote on the issues that matter most to them. Republicans say it's rising crime and inflation that's driving voters, not abortion.

"Democrats are grasping onto the only thing they have," said Republican House Minority Leader Kurt Daudt. "They can't talk about inflation; they can't talk about crime and all the things that are affecting Minnesotans everyday. These are the things that people are telling us they care about."

The margins are close. Republicans, who have led the state Senate for the past six years, hold exactly the 34 seats needed for a majority in the chamber. In the House, Republicans must pick up four seats to win control after being shut out of power since 2018.

Regional battlegrounds have materialized in northeastern Minnesota and around St. Cloud, but many of the top races are concentrated in the suburbs surrounding the Twin Cities. That includes an Anoka and Coon Rapids area House seat that paired two incumbent legislators in the same district — Republican John Heinrich and DFLer Zack Stephenson.

Both have served two terms at the Capitol, but Heinrich now finds himself in a district that swung narrowly for Biden two years ago. He stresses to voters his background as a veteran who has been endorsed by law enforcement. That's been critical in a year where rising crime is a top concern, he said.

"All sides agree that we want to protect people in their communities, but the type of rhetoric that has been thrown around by some Democrats has been really hurtful over time," Heinrich said. "Law enforcement have had a really hard time recruiting top-notch officers."

Stephenson, a Coon Rapids attorney who chairs the House's commerce committee, said his races have always been close, but he prevailed by running as a moderate at a time when people are frustrated with political extremes.

Unlike past election cycles, where one or two issues are at the top of people's minds, he said he hears a grab bag of concerns from voters this year: the high cost of living, rising crime, abortion rights, the perilous future of democracy. One thing he's not hearing much: voters who plan to break with their party.

"That's why it's so important to get out and talk to people face to face," said Stephenson, whose door-knocking efforts have tripled this year after dialing back during the pandemic. "That's why I continue to expect this to be a close election."

Mailers and TV ads have flooded the district and other blue-collar northern suburban communities, where there's a cluster of more than a half-dozen competitive races. In the battle for the Senate, redistricting placed incumbent Sens. Jim Abeler, R-Anoka, and Roger Chamberlain, R-Lino Lakes, in new districts whose voters swung for Biden.

Sen. Karin Housley, who is helping to lead the Senate GOP campaign effort, said she hears most about crime and the economy. But, she said, the massive pandemic fraud scheme involving a federal nutrition program has come up with some voters in recent weeks. Republicans have held multiple press conferences to blame Democrats for not doing enough to prevent the scandal.

"That's government fraud, and taxpayer dollars and where's my money going," said Housley, who adds that the Senate held several hearings this spring on the scandal. "Voters are watching the news, and they are asking about it. It's risen to the top."

But Democrats say they're hearing that voters are frustrated with Senate Republicans, who left the Capitol in May after negotiations broke down with Democrats over a sweeping proposal to spend a $9 billion budget surplus on tax cuts, public safety and classrooms.

"They left without finishing the job. People are really upset about that," said Sen. Erin Murphy, DFL-St. Paul, who is leading the effort to take back control of the Senate. "Minnesotans are decent people who have high expectations for their government, for their communities, for their leaders."

After redistricting, there are now more districts in the House and Senate that favored Biden over Donald Trump two years ago, but the new maps and retirements have created openings in rural areas for Republicans in districts whose voters picked Trump.

A cluster of those seats is in northeastern Minnesota, where the retirement of two longtime Iron Range senators created opportunities both parties are targeting. In the House, Democrats are defending their last three legislators representing the Range, a formerly blue area that has been trending red over the past decade.

Outside groups have swooped into these districts with ads seeking to tie House Democratic candidates to Biden and attack them for a proposed gas tax hike while prices at the pump are still high.

"Voters know the DFL-controlled House has failed when it comes to protecting the economic and physical security of their constituents," said Stephanie Rivera, spokeswoman for the national Republican State Leadership Committee. The group has spent $1.5 million to try to flip the state House.

While both sides agree the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe in June altered the political landscape, including the fight to control the Legislature, they disagree on whether it remains a potent political issue.

Legislative Republicans argue interest has faded and abortion is a non-issue. Even if they win the majority, Daudt said, they don't plan to push for changes to abortion access in Minnesota, where constitutional protections are in place through a state Supreme Court ruling.

Democrats, who have spent millions on abortion-related ads this cycle, say the issue is coming up at the doors in battleground suburban districts, often prompted by voters who don't buy the GOP argument.

That includes the race for a Senate seat that stretches along the state's eastern border from Lake Elmo south to Hastings. There, Republican business owner Tom Dippel is up against DFLer Judy Seeberger, an attorney, teacher and paramedic.

"I've heard that from men and women; I've heard that from voters who have voted Republican their whole life but they're not going to this cycle because reproductive rights are so important to them," said Seeberger. "That sends a pretty clear message."