If President Donald Trump's tariff plan against Canada goes into effect as planned, Minnesotans eventually will likely feel its effects at the gas pump.

Most of the oil refined into gasoline in Minnesota comes from Canada, the state's largest trading partner. General Mills sources many of its oats for the nation's top-selling cereal, Cheerios, from the country. And companies involved in the auto industry have a strong relationship with Canadian firms, as does the Iron Range ore industry.

The tariff plan is fast-moving; tariffs on Mexico were delayed a month Monday morning, putting off a sharp rise in the price of many fresh fruits and vegetables American consumers depend on in winter.

So far, the plan for 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, except 10% on oil and energy, is still set to go into effect at midnight Tuesday. An all-inclusive 10% tariff on Chinese goods is also scheduled to take effect Tuesday.

Trump warned of "pain" for Americans as the import penalties take effect and countries counter with tariffs on American exports.

Canada has pledged retaliatory tariffs designed to reduce consumption of targeted U.S. exports like beer, bourbon, fruit juice and appliances, and the prime minister is encouraging a broader boycott of American products.

Here's a look at what the brewing trade war could mean in Minnesota.

What are the most immediate impacts of the tariffs?

The stock market slumped Monday morning after investors realized Trump was not bluffing on tariffs and prices on goods could soon rise, dampening the consumer spending the economy relies on.

Beyond stocks, the most immediate impacts will be on food, fashion and electronics, said Neil Saunders, managing director at GlobalData.

"Retailers will take a multi-pronged approach. They will try to reduce costs in their supply chain and wider operations, they will absorb some of the cost, and they will pass some across to consumers," Saunders said. "Low-margin sectors, which include food and electronics, will feel the pinch more than most as margins are not robust enough to absorb all of the increase."

After historic grocery inflation finally cooled off to average levels — and following Trump's campaign promises to lower food prices — higher grocery bills could be on the horizon.

The Consumer Brands Association, which counts Minnesota companies like General Mills, Hormel Foods, Land O'Lakes and Target among its members, said in a statement tariffs "could lead to higher consumer prices and retaliation against U.S. exporters."

As far as ingredients such as the oats General Mills gets from Canada, "despite sourcing the vast majority of ingredients and inputs from U.S. farms and domestic suppliers, [consumer packaged goods] companies depend on global supply chains for certain imports due to unique growing conditions and other limiting factors around the world," the Consumer Brands Association said.

The association is urging the countries to negotiate. Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are scheduled to speak Monday afternoon.

Saunders said consumers can take action now to get ahead of possible price increases.

"The advice would be to make big-ticket purchases now if you can and to perhaps stock up on some non-consumable essentials," he said. "We might be entering an unstable period for prices."

The Canadian energy tariffs will also "weigh on demand and boost the U.S. dollar," according to a Barclays report.

"I expect a slow but modest impact on fuel prices, particularly in the Great Lakes, Midwest, Rockies and Northeast U.S. — all markets that rely heavily on Canadian crude oil or refined product imports from Canada," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, a gasoline pricing website.

Why Canada?

A 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada — and a lower 10% tariff on energy products like oil and natural gas — is meant to "address the flow of illicit drugs across our northern border," according to the president's executive order initiating tariffs on Saturday.

"Canada has played a central role in these challenges, including by failing to devote sufficient attention and resources or meaningfully coordinate with United States law enforcement partners to effectively stem the tide of illicit drugs," the order said. "Immediate action is required to finally end this public health crisis and national emergency, which will not happen unless the compliance and cooperation of Canada is assured."

What is Minnesota's trade relationship with Canada, Mexico and China?

Canada and Mexico are Minnesota's top trading partners, with China third. Combined, the state imports far more than it exports to those countries.

In 2023, Minnesota imported $14.1 billion worth of goods from Canada and exported $7 billion, according to census data. Oil is the largest share of Canadian imports.

The state imported $3.3 billion from Mexico, roughly the same level as Minnesota exported to the country in 2023.

Minnesota's annual imports from China through November 2024 reached $6 billion. The state exported $2.4 billion to China in 2023.

Analysts with JPMorgan Chase outlined uncertainty ahead as the tariffs could be swiftly removed through negotiations between the Trump administration and Canadian and Chinese leaders — just like what happened with Mexico.

But the Trump administration also has shown a willingness to increase tariff pressure in the face of retaliatory actions. What is clear, analysts say: A "sharp shift" in America's position on global trade is here, and a potential trade war with the nation's closest economic partners is at risk of widening.

What will happen to supply chains?

Eden Prairie-based C.H. Robinson is the world's largest third-party logistics provider and helps connect shippers with carriers. Company leaders say tariff impacts won't be seen immediately, but they still have suggestions for what shippers can do immediately to prepare.

"Freight still needs to move, production lines still need to run, and consumers still expect full shelves," said Mike Short, president of global freight forwarding at C.H. Robinson. "Companies can't simply flip a switch and move operations. For example, for the automotive industry, which represents a large amount of cross-border freight across all three countries in North America, altering production lines takes months to years of planning. However, it's possible many shippers will be cautious about new orders the first few days after tariffs are implemented to gauge if the tariffs are temporary or longer term."

Importers will also need to look at compliance as the tariffs go into effect.

"Shippers need to first and foremost consider actions to stay compliant, such as potentially increasing their customs bond," Short said. "And with the new tariffs on some of the United States' top trading partners with the U.S., shippers are keen to find cost savings in other parts of their supply chain."

What is the impact on Minnesota's medtech sector?

The country's most powerful medical technology trade and lobbying group, AdvaMed, is calling for the tariffs to exclude medical devices. Tariffs could lead to less research and development, layoffs and higher prices for patients, said Scott Whitaker, the group's president and CEO.

"We have shared with the administration our concerns about the potential impact tariffs could have on the medical technology supply chain that American patients depend on for their care," Whitaker said in a news release.

Trump's first administration carved out tariff exemptions for most devices, he said.

Many medical device companies either have some manufacturing operations overseeing or use foreign parts in their devices. Medtronic and Boston Scientific, which have massive operations in the Twin Cities, both do business in China.

A spokesperson for Medtronic said the massive medical device company is "monitoring developments as the situation evolves while reviewing the details as they become available to assess the potential impact to the company and develop mitigation strategies if necessary."

John Hastings, CEO of pulse oximeter manufacturer Nonin Medical based in Plymouth, said in a recent interview that tariffs would affect almost all medical device companies.

"When you start getting into the individual components" of devices, Hastings said, "you can't avoid depending on China."

Tariffs risk disrupting the industry's supply chain, Whitaker said in the AdvaMed statement, and shortages "of critical medical technologies are a real concern in our initial modeling."

He said tariffs can hold back innovation, adding that research and development spending would likely be the first casualty.

"And increased tariffs may even have the unintended consequence of boosting the competitiveness of medtech industries of other nations," Whitaker said.

President and CEO Roberta Antoine Dressen of Medical Alley, a medtech trade association based in Minnesota, said her organization is "working with our partners to assess the scope and impact of these executive orders on the health care industry and the patients they serve."

"Our priority is ensuring all Americans have access to high-quality, affordable health care, state-of-the-art medical innovations, and the treatments they need to live healthier lives," Dressen said.

Hastings said his company, which has long assembled pulse oximeters in Minnesota, may be less exposed to the effects of tariffs than others. The company receives printed circuit boards from a Minnesota company.

Companies selling over-the-counter medical devices in retail settings may be more exposed, he said, as many devices arrive in the U.S. fully assembled from China.

"We'll still feel it a lot," Hastings said.

What are the risks and opportunities for Minnesota agriculture?

Dan Glessing, a Wright County dairy farmer and president of the Minnesota Farm Bureau, spoke on Monday morning just before federal officials announced a one-month delay on tariffs against Mexican goods.

Minnesota producers, from grain farmers to pork producers, are heavily dependent on foreign trade, especially to the U.S.'s neighbors to the north and south. But, at least initially on Monday, the grain markets had spiked upon opening.

"Don't get me wrong, tariffs are concerning, especially on the heels of [the U.S.] becoming a net food importer," Glessing said. "But don't think I didn't look first thing this morning and the market is up 15 cents on beans today, making me think, 'What's going on here?' "

By noon, the soybean price at the Chicago Board of Trade still was trading 11 cents higher. Corn had similarly risen 4 cents to $4.86 a bushel, while wheat was up 8 cents to $5.67.

Commodity prices are nearing a five-year low thanks to ample global harvests and a resulting retreat from record prices fetched during the pandemic. Any disruption to grain trading, then, is likely to spike prices — a boon for farmers but a potential drag on consumer prices.

Higher costs of fertilizer might also push up crop prices or eat into farm income. The Fertilizer Institute has asked the Trump administration to exempt potash and other fertilizer imports from tariffs.

"The U.S. relies on imports for over 95% of its potash fertilizer needs, with nearly 90% of that coming from Canada," the group said in a statement. "Potash, a vital source of crop nutrition essential for the health and productivity of U.S. agriculture, is a geographically limited resource produced by only a handful of countries worldwide. While the U.S. produced roughly 400,000 metric tons of potash in 2023, domestic potash consumption that year was approximately 5.3 million metric tons. No substitutes exist for potash as an essential plant nutrient."

How are Minnesota manufacturers responding?

Delkor makes and ships about $100 million of robotic packaging machines from its Arden Hills factory each year. About 10% to 15% of that goes north or south of the border.

As a result, "I'm quite concerned about our future opportunities," Delkor CEO Dale Andersen said Monday. "We're building several machines right now for Canada. If all of a sudden our customers had to pay a 25% tariff then they would have to buy equipment from some other country."

"But a lot of people I've talked to, [including] a few of the other owners of machinery businesses for packaging, we all sort of feel that this is sort of a negotiation ploy. No one I've really talked to thinks that this is going to last for more than maybe a month or two."

This story will be updated. It includes reporting from the Associated Press and staff writers Carson Hartzog, Patrick Kennedy, Dee DePass, Christopher Vondracek and Mike Hughlett.