Hitting pause on the suggestion that mountain lions are moving through

In these parts where cougars are a ghostlike paradox — rare but always commanding interest — a guest essay in the New York Times Opinion section last week seemed to raise the stakes:

"Cougars are Heading East. We Should Welcome Them," read the headline in bold.

An advocate and researcher with Panthera, a conservation group that champions the world's 45 wild cat species, cougars among them, Mark Elbroch wrote that the elusive predator is moving back into its historic range east of the Mississippi River, and that Minnesota is central to the act.

The state was cited as a recent example of the big animal's push through the Midwest — a sleek cat turned up on wolf researchers' trail-cam video last fall in northern Minnesota. What's more, Panthera and its research partners concluded parts of remote, forested northern Minnesota (and Wisconsin and Michigan too, and points farther east) could be ideal habitats for cougars to set up and thrive.

What's true? Through photographic and physical evidence, cougars have passed through Minnesota, that's a fact. And, broadly viewed, parts of northern Minnesota for several reasons could make cougars a good home. But pump the brakes, a Department of Natural Resources expert says, on the idea that these cats are "heading east" and through Minnesota in any number, or that they have a future here.

So will we or won't we see more cougars roaming the state?

Likely, no. As Elbroch wrote, their movement is historically "slow." Minnesota wildlife managers know many of the cougars that show up here are from the Black Hills of South Dakota, based partly on genetic data retrieved from dead animals. It's believed there was a population of about 200 cougars in the Black Hills in the mid-2000s, and it took nearly 20 years for some of them to expand 100 miles east, across the "human-dominated landscape" between the Hills and the Pine Ridge area of northwest Nebraska. In this context, Elbroch suggested state managers might consider reintroducing the cougar in the East to accelerate matters.

But isn't the habitat inviting?

On the surface, yes. There is an obvious prey base (deer) in an area with relatively little livestock (up north), accompanied by swaths of forest cover, with few opportunities for contact with people.

Again, it comes down to chemistry.

Many of the cougars verified in Minnesota have been young males likely wandering in search of females, said Dan Stark, the DNR's large carnivore specialist. When they haven't found mates, they've moved on.

"The limitation is there haven't been any females that have made it here that have been documented," Stark said.

But what about sightings I hear about or read about?

The DNR says it gets reports each year from people who claim to have witnessed in person or have evidence of a cougar. The agency investigates what it can. Some have tangible photographic proof, or the DNR has been able to collect scat or hair samples. Or, in some instances, a cat turns up dead, most often when struck by a vehicle.

Minnesota has had 59 verified cougar sightings since 2004, when the DNR began tracking reports. There were 16 in 2020 — almost one-third of the total — but it's possible based on timing and location that some sightings were of the same animal, said Stark.

2022 numbers haven't been released, but last fall there were a handful of confirmed cases via trail cam photos in southern Koochiching and northern Itasca counties. Based on timing and proximity, the cases might have involved the same cat.

Panthera suggests cougars, as top-line carnivores, can be a key cog in a healthy, balanced ecosystem. In Minnesota, that would seem to put them in competition with wolves.

Scientifically, the idea of direct competition between the two predators is intriguing, said Tom Gables, who runs the longtime Voyageurs wolf research project and whose team unexpectedly captured trail cam video of a mountain lion when reviewing data last fall.

Long adapted to dry, brush-strewn and rocky terrain out West, the slender cats would have to adjust to much different terrain in northern Minnesota.

And could they coexist with wolves?

"I think purely from a biological standpoint, it is cool to think about a native predator returning to its former range," Gable said.

Elbroch was involved in a Wyoming study that examined the overlap. Published in November 2020, the research found evidence that wolves, when reintroduced to an area, are deadly to cougars, killing their kittens and starving out adults.

Stark agreed such a dynamic is complex and believes cougars would struggle for footing in Minnesota, noting they were "low density" when here originally.

"There are a lot of unknowns," he said.