"But Paul, we just had the mildest start to autumn on record?" Old Man Winter: Hold my beer. Better yet, hold my Metamucil. The winter solstice is 24 days away. Long nights are brewing up giant swirls of subzero air from Siberia to Alaska and northern Canada. Without El Niño to keep prevailing winter winds howling from the mild Pacific, close encounters of numbing air become more likely. I'll be surprised if we have a polar vortex winter with week after week below zero. Note to self: I'm continually surprised.

Pond hockey enthusiasts are looking forward to sustained temperatures below freezing. There will be ice. But this invasion of January-like air, unlike many others, will NOT spin up a travel-busting snowstorm for Thanksgiving.

Ten to 20 degrees below average from Wednesday into the first week of December? Yep. A few lonely flurries Wednesday, next Tuesday and Thursday, followed by another cold punch late next week.

Models show 30s the second week of December. I'm amazed (and horrified) how good 30s feel after a cold snap.