Quick question: Have you worn a heavy coat yet? Even a heavy jacket? September was 7 degrees warmer than average in the Twin Cities; October was 8 degrees above average. According to National Weather Service "heating degree data" we've spent roughly HALF as much money as usual heating our homes and offices since August, when temperatures began to cool.
We will have winter, but the more I stare at the long-range models the less convinced I am we'll fight a battalion of arctic cold fronts. Will prevailing winds blow from the Pacific or the North Pole most of the winter? I'm hedging my bets. In spite of a (weak) La Niña cool phase in the Pacific, we may have an average, even a slightly milder than normal winter. Confidence level: low. Just a hunch.
I see mostly 50s (above zero) into mid-November, with showery rain from this afternoon into Sunday; potentially heavier rain Wednesday of next week. No snow the next 10 days, even up north. Weird, huh?
Minnesota falls are trending milder. That's not a theory. It's our new reality.
