Gophers vs. Illinois

• Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. Saturday

• Where: Huntington Bank Stadium

• TV/Radio: BTN, 100.3-FM

• Line: Gophers by 11⁄2

Back-to-back victories over Iowa and Michigan State have the Gophers (5-3, 3-2) in a four-way tie atop the Big Ten's West Division. They open the final month of the regular season with a route to get to Indianapolis for the conference title game, but it requires that they keep stacking wins, starting against Illinois (3-5, 1-4).

Three big story lines

Can the Gophers finally beat Bret Bielema? The Fighting Illini coach is 9-0 against Minnesota in his career, going 7-0 as Wisconsin's coach and 2-0 with Illinois. The Gophers fell 14-6 to the Illini in 2021 and 26-14 last year, so points have been tough to come by for coach P.J. Fleck's team.

What will the Gophers backfield look like? Standout freshman running backs Darius Taylor and Zach Evans missed the Michigan State game because of injury, so in stepped Jordan Nubin, who rushed 40 times for 204 yards and two touchdowns. If Taylor and/or Evans return, the Gophers will have strong options.

Will the Gophers ever score on their first possession? The Gophers want to start fast, accelerate in the middle and finish strong, but fast starts have been tough to come by this season. Minnesota has not scored on the first possession in any game and has been outscored 33-20 in the first quarter.

Two key matchups

Gophers offensive line vs. Illinois' "Law Firm''

The defensive tackle duo of Jer'Zhan Newton (6-2, 295 pounds) and Keith Randolph Jr. (6-5, 300) might be the nation's best and has a catchy nickname, too. The Gophers catch a break because Newton must sit out the first half after receiving a targeting penalty in the Illini's last game.

Gophers linebackers vs. Illinois QB Luke Altmyer

Altmyer, a transfer from Ole Miss, gives opponents fits with his scrambling ability, and he's rushed 83 times for 301 yards and three TDs this season. The Gophers got a boost with the return of linebacker Cody Lindenberg last week, and his presence helps as Devon Williams and Maverick Baranowski mature.

One stat that matters

40:04

The Illini's time of possession last year vs. the Gophers. When Minnesota has won this year, it has kept the ball for an average of 35:30.

The Gophers will win if … they start better than they have all season; they establish a dominant run game in the first half with Newton stuck to the bench; they find efficiency in the pass game; they neutralize Altmyer's ability to scramble; and they win the turnover battle.

The Fighting Illini will win if … they dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides like they did last year; they forge an early lead, forcing the Gophers to play lefthanded; Altmyer makes a difference with his legs while still finding top target Isaiah Williams; they avoid penalties and turnovers that have hurt them all season.

Prediction

The Gophers defense bailed out the offense last week after lost fumbles on the first two possessions. Minnesota will need to be much more efficient on offense, and it should be behind a strong running game and QB Athan Kaliakmanis' better grasp of the offense. Another solid effort by the Gophers defensive line should help keep Altmyer from inflicting too much damage. Both teams will try to impose their ball-control will on the other, so possessions and scoring could be at a premium.

My expectation: It won't be easy, but the Gophers find a way to end the Bielema hex as Dragan Kesich, the Serbian Hammer, comes up big.

Gophers 20, Illinois 17