Gophers at No. 12 Michigan

  • Kickoff: 11 a.m., Saturday
  • Where: Michigan Stadium
  • TV: Fox Radio: 100.3-FM
  • Michigan by 9½

Fresh off a 14-7 halftime lead that turned into a 31-14 loss to Iowa, the Gophers (2-2, 0-1 Big Ten) hit the road for the first time this season and continue a difficult three-game stretch at defending national champion Michigan (3-1, 1-0), which is coming off a thrilling 27-24 win over USC. The stretch continues next week with a visit from the Trojans.

Three big story lines

Can the Gophers end their Big Ten skid?

With their loss to Iowa, the Gophers have dropped five in a row against Big Ten teams, being outscored 171-83 in the process. Their last Big Ten win was a 27-12 triumph over Michigan State on Oct. 28, 2023. Facing a team that's ranked 12th and has playoff aspirations is a tall task.

Can the Gophers stop the run?

They've been victimized for 129 yards by North Carolina's Omarion Hampton and 206 by Iowa's Kaleb Johnson, and now the Gophers will face the duo of Kalel Mullings, who rushed 17 times for 159 yards against USC last week, and Donovan Edwards, who carried 14 times for 74 yards.

Can Max Brosmer find consistency?

Gophers quarterback Max Brosmer has had some hot streaks, such as the second quarter against Iowa when he completed 10 consecutive passes and went 11-for-14 for 188 yards and two TDs. He's also had slumps, too, including his 5-for-11, 44-yard second-half showing vs. Iowa. He'll seek balance at Michigan.

Two key matchups

Gophers center Greg Johnson vs. Michigan DT Mason Graham

Johnson won't face Graham, a preseason All-America, on every play, but he'll see him enough. The 6-2, 320-pound Graham anchors a defensive line that's been tough against the run (76.5 yards allowed per game) and produced six of the team's eight sacks this season. Johnson's trial by fire continues.

Gophers WR Daniel Jackson vs. Michigan CB Will Johnson

Jackson leads the Gophers with 21 receptions for 268 yards but has yet to visit the end zone. He'll be challenged when lined up against Johnson, one of the top cornerbacks in college football and a likely top-10 draft pick. Johnson returned an interception 42 yards for a TD vs. USC.

One stat that matters

26-2 – Michigan's record in the past 28 games in the Little Brown Jug series. Sixteen of those wins were by 21 or more points.

How the Gophers will win

Minnesota will need to play a nearly perfect game to pull off the upset. That would mean controlling the ball on offense, keeping Michigan off-balance with the pass and run, and avoiding long stretches of three-and-outs. On defense, the Gophers will need to stop the run for the full 60 minutes and force a couple of turnovers.

How the Wolverines will win

With its superior roster, Michigan just needs to play its game, dominate on the ground and avoid turnovers to win. The Wolverines don't ask QB Alex Orji to pass very often, but they might want to get him more looks. On defense, the Wolverines need to pressure Brosmer to keep him out of rhythm.

Prediction

Upsets happen in college football, but just don't count on one from this game. In their two games against Power Four opponents this year, the Gophers squandered 14-7 halftime leads against North Carolina and Iowa only to see the Tar Heels and Hawkeyes shove the ball down their throats in the third quarter. There is little indication that the Wolverines won't be dominant from the start.

My expectation: Just like in the matchup against the Wolverines last year, Michigan takes an early lead, keeps building on it and rolls to an easy victory. Michigan 38, Gophers 10