Gophers at UCLA

  • Kickoff: 8 p.m., Saturday
  • Where: Rose Bowl Stadium
  • TV: BTN Radio: 100.3-FM
  • Gophers by 5½

The Gophers pulled off an upset that was a long time coming, knocking off No. 11 USC 24-17 on Max Brosmer's fourth-down QB sneak with 56 seconds left in in the fourth quarter and freshman Koi Perich's interception in the end zone. Now Minnesota (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten) faces UCLA (1-4, 0-3), losers of four in a row.

Three big story lines

Will the Gophers build off the upset of USC?

Minnesota put together its best game of the season against the Trojans, rallying with 14 fourth-quarter points and owning the majority of the game's important moments. The Gophers face a Bruins team that's averaging only 14 points per game and is giving up 30. Minnesota must take advantage of this opportunity with more clean play.

Will the Gophers run defense control the Bruins?

The Gophers have struggled to stop the run, allowing big games from North Carolina's Omarion Hampton (129 yards), Iowa's Kaleb Johnson (206), Michigan's Kalel Mullings (111) and USC's Woody Marks (134). UCLA is averaging 64.2 rushing yards per game, lowest in the Big Ten. This is the day for the Gophers run 'D' to excel.

Who will start at QB for UCLA?

Senior Ethan Garber has completed 57.3% of his passes for 202 yards per game and three touchdowns with eight interceptions. He missed last week's game at Penn State because of an ankle injury and was replaced by sophomore Justyn Martin, who went 22-for-30 for 161 yards. Coach DeShaun Foster hasn't named his starter.

Two key matchups

Gophers RB Darius Taylor vs. UCLA LBs

Taylor is coming off his best game of the season, rushing for 144 yards and catching five passes for 56 yards against USC. For the Bruins to have a chance at beating Minnesota, linebackers Carson Schwesinger (49 tackles) and Kain Medrano (28 tackles) need to be big factors.

Gophers OTs vs. UCLA defensive line

Left tackle Aireontae Ersery and right tackle Quinn Carroll graded out best among the Gophers offensive linemen against USC, according to Pro Football Focus. They'll need to be stout again against a Bruins defensive line led by end Oluwafemi Oladejo (four tackles for loss) and tackle Jay Tola (11 tackles).

One stat that matters

114 Passing yards allowed per game by the Gophers, fewest in FBS. The Gophers also rank second with 10 interceptions.

How the Gophers will win: If the Gophers could bottle last week's game against USC — except for the turnover that led to a Trojans field goal at the end of the first half — it would serve them well to break it out against UCLA. QB Max Brosmer has led the Gophers to five TDs in five fourth-quarter possessions over the past two weeks.

How the Bruins will win: Because UCLA struggles to score, it'll likely need some help from the Gophers in the form of turnovers to spring an upset. If the Bruins can establish a run game, they might be able to keep Minnesota's offense on the sideline.

Prediction

UCLA hung around last week at Penn State, trailing 7-3 late in the second quarter before the Nittany Lions scored a TD just before halftime. The Bruins lost 27-11, not scoring their TD until 16 seconds remained. The Gophers should expect a strong effort from the Bruins, who see this game as winnable. Minnesota has more playmakers — Brosmer, Taylor, Daniel Jackson, Jah Joyner and Perich — and look for that talent to wear down UCLA in the second half.

My expectation: By beating USC, the Gophers put themselves back on track to reach a bowl game. Though they have been inconsistent this season, they will be focused enough to win. Gophers 27, UCLA 16