Gophers vs. No. 11 Southern California

  • Kickoff: 6:30 p.m., Saturday
  • Where: Huntington Bank Stadium
  • TV: BTN Radio: 100.3-FM
  • USC by 8

The Gophers get their first taste of one of the Big Ten's new members in USC, which is coming off a 38-21 victory over Wisconsin. Minnesota (2-3, 0-2 Big Ten) has lost two straight overall and has a six-game conference skid. The Trojans (3-1, 1-1) lost 27-24 at Michigan, the same score as the Gophers-Wolverines result.

Three big story lines

Did the Gophers turn the corner at Michigan?

With a 21-point fourth-quarter rally and successful onside kick, the Gophers were poised to pull the upset in Ann Arbor. Instead, the umpire ruled the Gophers were offside on the kick, and the Wolverines recovered the re-kick. Minnesota will try to build off that strong fourth quarter.

Is USC a legitimate threat to make the College Football Playoff?

So far, the answer is yes. The Trojans have been impressive from the start of the season, when they beat Louisiana State 27-20 in Las Vegas. They also had a near-miss at Michigan and posted a dominant second half to beat Wisconsin. They have stiff tests ahead in Penn State, Nebraska and Notre Dame.

Can the Gophers win without a dominant run game?

So far against Power Four opponents, the answer is no, but Minnesota nearly won at Michigan with only 38 yards on the ground. Darius Taylor and Marcus Major might have some chances because USC ranks 78th nationally in rushing defense, allowing 149 yards per game, including 169.7 vs. Power Four opponents.

Two key matchups

Gophers secondary vs. USC QB Miller Moss

Last week, the Gophers faced one of the nation's worst passers in Michigan's Alex Orji. Saturday, they draw one of the best in Moss, who's completing 65.4% of his passes for 299.5 yards per game. If CB Justin Walley returns from a knee injury, that will be a boost for the Gophers.

Gophers RB Darius Taylor vs. USC linebackers

With the run game sputtering, the Gophers have found other ways to get the ball into Taylor's hands. He caught 10 passes for 52 yards at Michigan, tying the program record for receptions by a running back. LBs Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (22 tackles, one interception) and Mason Cobb (two INTs) will be key for USC.

One stat that matters

26.4 Average, in yards, of Koi Perich's five punt returns. The true freshman is on track to break the school's single-season record of 16.9, set by Paul Giel in 1953.

How the Gophers will win: QB Max Brosmer picks up after his hot finish against Michigan and gets the offense moving, the run game and offensive line do enough to keep the Trojans defense off balance and the coaching staff continues to use Perich as a weapon in the return game.

How the Trojans will win: Moss and the passing game effective attack the Gophers secondary to gain an early lead and open space for the running game to operate. Punter Eddie Czaplicki (49.2-yard average) flips the field to force the Gophers to mount long drives to score.

Prediction

The Gophers knew that the three-week stretch of games against Iowa, Michigan and USC would be daunting, and the result is two losses so far. The second half at Michigan had the Gophers looking like a team poised to break through, and they need that to continue against USC. The Trojans will gain their yards behind the passing of Moss, but the Gophers defense makes enough stops to force field-goal attempts while Minnesota's offense comes through in the clutch.

My expectation: Needing a statement win against a "name" team, the Gophers finally get one. Gophers 27, USC 23