Gov. Tim Walz's swing-state appeal is put to the test in western Wisconsin

MENOMONIE, WIS. – Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has wagered that Minnesota's folksy, flannel-wearing governor can help her win over working-class voters in battleground states, but in neighboring western Wisconsin, it's unclear whether Gov. Tim Walz is having much sway.

Retiree Jane Pedersen proudly hoisted a "Coach Walz" sign as she and a few dozen other local Democrats rallied outside the Menomonie Public Library on a clear fall afternoon. As a stream of drivers passed by during rush hour, many honked and hollered out their windows in support. There's palpably more enthusiasm for the Harris-Walz ticket among Democrats in this college town than there was for President Joe Biden, Pedersen said.

"He builds bridges. He doesn't tear down things … To be from Minnesota is even better," Pedersen, 73, said of Walz. But Pedersen said she wasn't very familiar with Walz until he was elevated to the national ticket, and that she would have supported Harris regardless of her running mate.

Thirteen miles east in the village of Elk Mound, Tom Gilbert manned the counter of the gun shop that his grandfather opened in 1952. A large "Trump Vance Make America Great Again 2024″ sign hangs outside the Gilbert Gun Exchange, which is housed in a stately old bank building on the town's main drag. Shotguns, rifles and other firearms line the walls inside, along with a sign from the last election that reads: "Trump 2020 cuz … you don't send a choir boy to a knife fight."

The 49-year-old Gilbert describes himself as a "constitutionalist independent," someone who had been open to both parties until he felt Democrats began encroaching on Second Amendment rights. Former President Donald Trump may not have the best bedside manner, Gilbert said, "but he's not running for kindergarten teacher. When the job entails sitting at tables with tyrants and psychopaths of the world, commanding respect is imperative." He isn't a fan of Harris, who he said didn't earn the Democratic nomination, nor does he like Walz.

"The guy's a little radical for me," Gilbert said, adding that he heard that Walz and Minnesota Democrats spent most of a $17 billion budget surplus in a single legislative session.

The Harris campaign has trumpeted Walz's small-town roots and background as a former soldier, football coach and gun owner ever since he joined the ticket, and it has deployed him to red counties in several battleground states over the past couple months. Democrats hope that Walz, a former red-district congressman, can boost their appeal in rural America. They know they probably won't win in Trump country, but they're trying to narrow the margins, which could make the difference in a close election.

Western Wisconsin could be the ideal testing ground for this hypothesis. Voters here live within easy driving distance of Minnesota and get much of their news from the North Star state, giving them more exposure to Walz. The region is also home to a handful of the so-called "pivot counties" in America that voted for Barack Obama twice before swinging to Trump. Dunn County, home to Menomonie and a mix of small towns including Elk Mound, is one of those counties.

"This is an area that swings back and forth depending on the election cycle, and it's an area that really can deliver those decisive votes for candidates in a statewide election," said Anthony Chergosky, a University of Wisconsin-La Crosse political science professor. "If the Harris-Walz ticket can develop a brand that helps them stop the party's slide in rural Wisconsin, then that will massively help their path to victory."

Both presidential campaigns have spent considerable time in Wisconsin. Trump recently visited the state four times in a span of eight days. Harris held rallies in La Crosse and Green Bay earlier this month, and Walz made stops in Eau Claire, Green Bay and Madison. Walz told a crowd gathered at a "Students for Harris-Walz" event in Eau Claire that "it's very realistic to believe that this race will be won going through Wisconsin."

Though both campaigns have made frequent visits to the Badger State, their stops appear to be geared toward shoring up their respective bases, retired GOP strategist Brandon Scholz said.

"I think Tim Walz's job right now in Wisconsin, from what he's saying and where he's going and what he's doing, is, 'let's make sure 99 percent of our voters turn out, because we need every single one of them because of how close Wisconsin is,'" Scholz said. "To date, neither he nor Harris have communicated a message to bring in those undecideds, ticket splitters."

Ryan O'Gara is one of those undecideds. The 47-year-old Christian conservative lives in the village of Downing, some 20 miles northwest of Menomonie and home to about 230 people. O'Gara said he sees mostly Trump signs around his town, but he isn't a fan of either nominee and likely will sit out this election.

Asked what he thought of Walz, O'Gara referred to him as "far-left." He said he disagrees with allowing gender-affirming health care services for minors. Walz signed a bill into law last year making Minnesota a refuge for people seeking gender-affirming care.

"I'm also not going to find satisfaction in either candidate," O'Gara said as he brewed a latte during his shift at the Blind Munchies Coffeehouse in Menomonie.

'A more familiar ticket'

Pete Huff has been knocking on doors for months as he tries to narrow the margin in his home turf of Dunn County, which Trump won by about 3,300 votes in 2020.

Huff, chair of the Dunn County Democrats, is well aware that every vote matters in Wisconsin. Biden won the state by just over 20,000 votes four years ago.

Democrats in the county are energized by this year's ticket, Huff said, and even some Republicans have told him they're backing Harris-Walz because "they're tired of the divisiveness."

While most voters are more focused on the presidential nominees than their running mates, Huff said Walz "certainly makes it a more familiar ticket that people can relate to." Local Democrats who've followed Walz appreciate his support for reproductive rights and free school meals, Huff said.

Waving a Harris-Walz sign during the rally outside the Menomonie library, 77-year-old Lynne Hausman said the Minnesota governor comes across as a common guy with good values. Hausman said she was already somewhat familiar with Walz because many of her family members live in Minnesota and she gets most of her news from the Twin Cities.

"He's Midwest nice," said Hausman, a retired public school teacher. "I hope that that resonates with people."

"He gets us," Wisconsin Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin said of Walz. Baldwin attended the Dunn County Democrats' "Party at the Barn" fundraiser earlier this month.

"Whether it's the rural issues, the dairy farming issues, there's some similarities in terms of our manufacturing sector," said Baldwin, who's facing a close re-election fight. "The only rivalry is our professional sports teams. He's a Vikings fan and I'm a Packer fan, but we'll get over that."

Voters outside of the Democratic base have more mixed opinions about Walz, Huff said.

"There are folks that see some of the policies that have happened in Walz's administration in Minnesota, you know, it's something that they see as kind of fairly left-leaning," Huff said. "But they're also really quickly able to recognize the things that have been done that have helped the state."

In a strip-mall office near Menomonie City Hall, the Dunn County Republican Party stocks "Make America Great Again" merchandise along with signs for Trump-Vance and GOP U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde, who's challenging Baldwin.

Trump signs have been "flying out the door," said Diane Rust, who's on the Dunn County Republicans' executive board. Local Republicans are rallying behind Trump and haven't liked what they've seen or heard about Walz, Rust said.

"He has lied so many times," Rust said of Walz, referring specifically to the governor's incorrect claim that he was in Hong Kong during China's Tiananmen Square protests in 1989. She said she also doesn't support abortion rights bills that Walz signed into law.

"He does try to seem like a normal Midwestern guy, and he definitely does seem like that. But ... his actions and what he says don't come across that way," Rust said.

Trump won most counties in western Wisconsin in each of the past two presidential elections. Wisconsin GOP U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson said Trump's appeal in the region remains strong.

"The Republican Party, we are the party of the working men and women of this country," Johnson said. "Democrats are the party of the elite and the people that are dependent on government."

Western Wisconsin could very well be the key to winning this swing state, political observers say. To win, the Harris-Walz campaign must do more than just hold onto the base Democratic strongholds of Madison and Milwaukee.

"Madison and Milwaukee are not enough for Democrats to cobble together a statewide majority. They need these medium-sized cities and towns like Eau Claire," said Chergosky, the UW-La Crosse professor. "If they can recover a little bit in rural areas, then Madison, Milwaukee and the medium-sized communities like Eau Claire can put them over the top."