BEIJING — John Shuster is a big shotmaker. This is the same person who, four years ago, won a gold medal in men's curling for Team USA with a game-changing, house-clearing heave that led to five points against Sweden that locked up the win.

If Shuster says he has a shot, then he has a shot.

And he really thought he could grab two points in the eighth end Tuesday when he had the hammer and saw a path to tying the game against Italy.

"It was pretty much just a nose hit," Shuster said. "And pretty straightforward. Just happened to be a little bit narrow."

Shuster's shot was off by a few inches, inches that could knock Team USA out of the Olympic competition by the end of round-robin play.

Instead of gaining two points, Shuster's shot cleared out his team's two stones, leaving four stones in the house for Italy. Instead of a 6-6 tie, the U.S. was down 10-4 and conceded with two ends to go.

After beating Switzerland during the morning session, a U.S. win over 1-5 Italy paired with a Norway loss in the evening session would have qualified the Americans for the semifinals. Norway did its part by losing to China.

By the end of the day, results of other matches simplified things for the United States: if Team Shuster beats Denmark in its final round-robin match (7 p.m. Minnesota time, CNBC) it would finish fourth and reach the knockout round with a 5-4 record. The Danes are 1-7 so far.

A loss could put Shuster's side in a tie with as many four other teams for the last spot in the knockout round. Great Britain, Sweden and Canada have already qualified.

"I'm bummed because, you know, losing stinks," Shuster said, "but at the same time, we're not out of it. So if that loss meant we were out of tournament, I think I'd probably be feeling different."

If the United States loses to Denmark, it will be 4-5. China and ROC are already 4-5. Italy or Norway, both 3-5 right now, will be 4-5 after their match. Switzerland would be 4-5 by beating Sweden in its final match.

In a two-way tie, Team USA owns the tiebreaker over Russia, China and Switzerland but not Italy or Norway.

If three or more teams finish 4-5, the tiebreaker goes to the team with the best record against the others. If the three teams are still tied, the tiebreaker is the draw that's made to determine who has the hammer first before each match. It's called the draw shot challenge.

Here's how that works: Every team throws twice at the button — one with a clockwise spin, the other counterclockwise — with the closest cumulative distance winning. The average distance, minus the two worst throws, is used. Team USA could lose out if it comes down to the draw shot challenge because it ranks eighth of 10 teams.

Shuster's squad must like win-or-go-home scenarios. It put itself in this slop by losing to an Italy team that had just one win entering the match. Now the Americans face another one-win team in Denmark, a newcomer, that should be dominated by a team looking for more gold.

"Honestly, whether you get to the medal round and you're 5-4 or 9-0, the records are wiped out," Shuster said. "And if you win two games, you get a gold medal. So we're hoping to get that chance."