The Gophers have a middling 5-4 record and enter Saturday's game at Purdue needing a victory to achieve bowl eligibility. It's not the position they wanted to be in, but it's the hand they've dealt themselves.
There are several reasons why Minnesota is in this predicament, and they span all facets of the program. However, defensive collapses in losses to Northwestern and Illinois stand out.
In both of those games, three-play bursts by the Wildcats and Fighting Illini changed what could have been a 7-2 record for the Gophers to the 5-4 mark that has some fans grumbling and those with itchy trigger fingers calling for coach P.J. Fleck's job.
"The Northwestern game and the end of this Illinois game have a lot of similarities," Fleck acknowledged Monday.
The 37-34 overtime loss at Northwestern on Sept. 23 and last Saturday's 27-26 loss to Illinois are the primary reasons the Gophers are in a third-place tie in the Big Ten's West Division with a 3-3 conference record rather being 5-1 and owning a clear path to the conference title game.
For most of the second half against Illinois, the Gophers defense was solid. Linebacker Cody Lindenberg forced a fumble that led to the touchdown that put the Gophers up 26-21 with 5:53 to play. And on the next Illinois series, safety Tyler Nubin intercepted a Luke Altmyer pass with 4:04 to play, giving the Gophers a chance to run out the clock with a first down or two.
Three plays, 85 yards, touchdown
The Gophers offense couldn't get a first down, and Illinois got the ball back at its 16-yard line with 2:47 left. Defensive end Anthony Smith's third-down strip sack of Altmyer knocked the quarterback out of the game and left the Illini facing fourth-and-11 from the 15.
In stepped backup QB John Paddock, who won the game in three plays that covered 85 yards.
Play 1: Paddock hits Isaiah Williams for 22 yards to the 37 on fourth down. "[Our] corner slips on the break," Gophers defensive coordinator Joe Rossi said. "And that happens, or else he's in great position to go make a play on the ball."
Play 2: Paddock finds Pat Bryant over the middle for 17 yards to the Minnesota 46. The Gophers called a timeout with 57 seconds left.
"We just wanted to get our bearings," Rossi said. "They were in position to attack the end zone. … Plus, a couple of our rushers were kind of gassed."
Play 3: Paddock finds a wide-open Williams for a 46-yard TD pass with 50 seconds left on a play in which the wideout pulled away from Lindenberg, split safeties Nubin and Aidan Gousby and raced untouched into the end zone.
Afterward, both Lindenberg and Nubin blamed miscommunication for the blown coverage. Fleck saw mistakes in positioning.
"We should have been able to get a lot more depth at the free safety position," Fleck said. "Should have had a little bit of help from the other safety … maybe a little bit deeper at the linebacker position to start."
Three plays, 69 yards, touchdown
In Evanston, Ill., the Gophers led 31-10 early in the fourth, only to see Northwestern cut it to 31-17 with 12:01 left. What happened next foreshadowed what would happen against Illinois.
After the Wildcats defense forced a three-and out, Northwestern needed only three plays to cut the lead to 31-24 with 9:46 left.
Play 1: Quarterback Ben Bryant finds Bryce Kitz for a 21-yard gain to the Minnesota 48.
Play 2: Bryant hits Kitz for 31 yards to the Gophers 17.
Play 3: Bryant finds Kitz over the middle for the 17-yard TD.
"Northwestern was underneath zone coverage," Rossi said of the Gophers' issues. "It was linebackers not doing a great job in those situations. Our pass rush lanes were poor."
While the Gophers would get a defensive stop later in the fourth quarter, they couldn't stop the final drive that ended with Northwestern tying the score 31-31 with one second left.
In both losses, the Gophers defense fell victim to explosive plays. That goes against the grain of the past two years, when Rossi's defenses were known for limiting such big gainers.
In 2021, the Gophers allowed 35 plays of 20 or more yards, which tied for the fewest in the nation with Washington. Last year, Minnesota ranked eighth nationally with 41 plays of 20 or more yards allowed. This year, opponents have 32 plays of 20-plus, which is tied for 32nd nationally.
Saturday, Illinois got the winning touchdown on Williams' 46-yard catch, after a third-quarter TD when Kaden Feagin took a swing pass 54 yards.
"That's what it came down to: two explosive plays in the second half," Rossi said. "For the most part, we handled the second half and really did a nice job, but you don't get to take those two plays away."
Nor those six plays that have marred the Gophers' season.