Minnesota Senate's single seat race will determine balance for next two years

The homes hugging Lake Minnetonka and its sylvan suburbs are among the most desirable real estate in the Twin Cities and this campaign season, they will also deliver the coveted votes that determine whether the GOP gains control of the state Senate or the DFL stays in charge.

Republican Kathleen Fowke and DFLer Ann Johnson Stewart are the two candidates combing the west metro neighborhoods for votes, knocking on doors, dropping off literature day after day with maps on their cellphones indicating the electoral proclivities of residents. It's a grind that both embrace and value.

"I consider it an honor," said Fowke, who drives around in a white VW Beetle wrapped with her campaign photo and theme. This is her second attempt at winning the seat. She lost in 2022 to Sen. Kelly Morrison.

Launching from the sunlit DFL district office in a strip mall, Johnson Stewart sets out for at least three hours of door-knocking a day, often with multiple DFL senators lending a hand. "It's an important race so we have to do everything we can," she said.

All 134 Minnesota House seats are on the ballot this fall so the campaign for control of that chamber stretches across the state. But this Senate seat, open for a special election, is the only one of 67 seats on the Nov. 5 ballot, and it will determine who runs the chamber.

The state Senate is now balanced with 33 Democrats, 33 Republicans and one open seat. Morrison resigned her Senate seat in June to focus on her race against Republican political veteran Tad Jude for the open Third Congressional District seat held by Rep. Dean Phillips, who didn't seek re-election.

The significance of this seat cannot be overstated. Former Republican Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch said it's a tight race with two good candidates. "Neither side should take this one for granted and it's for all the marbles in the Minnesota Senate," she said.

Fowke, a real estate agent and lifelong entrepreneur, and Johnson Stewart, a civil engineer who served in the state Senate in 2021-23, are working hard to persuade undecided and reluctant voters.

GOP underdog

Fowke said she knows she's the underdog. "I'm not expected to win," she said between doors on a late afternoon Wednesday. In 2022, Fowke lost the Senate race with 44% of the vote to 56% for Morrison. That was a difference of 6,094 votes in the election that gave the DFL control of the state House, Senate and governor's office.

The district favors DFLers. President Joe Biden won it in 2020 as did Gov. Tim Walz in 2022. The district's voters are nearly 90% white. The median household income is $123,000, and poverty levels are low. The Hennepin County district encompasses most of the sprawling shores of Lake Minnetonka and includes Mound, Orono and Wayzata..

Fowke, 60, of Excelsior, is running as a pragmatist, a moderate old-school Republican, who will bring balance to the Capitol. "I'm tired of extremes on both sides," she said.

She acknowledges that two years ago, her message was more conservative, but she said that was a different time. "Minnesotans are hurting," she said. "They're looking for something different."

On abortion, she said she wants to leave the issue alone and focus on supporting women and children. She talks about easing day care mandates to make it less expensive.

Affordability is a theme. Fowke said she would push to eliminate the state gas tax and lessen the property tax burden on homeowners, recalling one older man in the district who told her he's on the verge of selling because he can't afford the taxes on his home.

For a dozen years, Fowke has been married to Ben Fowke, the former CEO of Xcel Energy whose compensation exceeded $20 million in each of his final four years. Fowke said she remains connected to her modest roots as a working-class kid and a divorced single mom of two struggling to feed her children and pay the heating bill.

She started her career as a cosmetologist before launching a landscaping business. Fowke then got her license to sell real estate. She recalls the crash of 2008 as an especially tough time. She faces no such struggles now, having so far loaned her two campaigns $500,000.

"Nobody owns me," Fowke said. As for her ties to Xcel, Fowke said, the company has been a leader in green energy and that her husband is well aware she has a mind of her own. She noted that the election is for the remaining two years of Morrison's term, not a full four years. "Put me in there for two years and let me see what I can do," she said.

Help from Senate Dems

Johnson Stewart, 60, of Minnetonka, already served two years. She was elected to the Senate in 2020 and because of redistricting, she ended up paired with Morrison and didn't seek re-election in 2022. She's running to keep the status quo, a DFL Senate majority capable of pushing through a stream of progressive policies.

She talks about protecting reproductive rights and making college more affordability, noting that when she earned her degree from the University of Wisconsin-Platteville, tuition was $600 a semester. "It changes people's lives, but they can't do it if they can't afford it," Johnson Stewart said.

The 2023 DFL-controlled Legislature passed the North Star Promise program that provides free college tuition at state and tribal colleges and universities for families earning less than $80,000 in federally adjusted gross income, alleviating the stress for working-class kids. "We're letting students be students," Johnson Stewart said.

Of the 33 remaining DFL senators, nearly two dozen have trekked out to the western suburbs to lend a hand, underscoring the significance of the seat. On a recent Saturday, the DFLers in attendance were Sens. Omar Fateh of Minneapolis, Rob Kupec of Moorhead and Clare Oumou Verbeten of St. Paul.

"It's a lot more fun in the majority," Fateh told some 20 staff and volunteers headed out to the streets.

Oumou Verbeten said, "We need Ann in the Senate and we're here because we love public education."

Kupec said the free tuition led to an uptick in college enrollment, which will lead to a well-educated workforce. "We need Ann there to make sure we can continue to go forward," he said.