Analysis: Aaron Rodgers-to-Vikings chatter slips into silence, leaves J.J. McCarthy as No. 1 QB

The idea that Aaron Rodgers would follow the final leg of the Brett Favre career arc, finishing his career in Minnesota after being traded from the Packers to the Jets, actually had its root in a relationship that started around the time the final act of Favre's career was dominating headlines.

Rodgers and Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell have known each other for nearly two decades, both quarterbacks from the state of California who started their NFL careers within three years of each other in the 2000s. Rodgers is fond of the Vikings coach; he watched the 2020 draft hoping the Packers would take Justin Jefferson, before the Vikings selected the receiver minutes before Green Bay traded up for Jordan Love, the quarterback who'd play the role that Rodgers had once played for Favre.

For a brief moment in the first week of free agency, it appeared the Vikings were at least entertaining the idea of acting on Rodgers' interest in coming to Minnesota to finish his career with O'Connell and Jefferson. By Monday night, though, sources said the idea was unlikely. On Wednesday, it appeared the prospect of Rodgers coming to Minnesota had been tabled.

Sources said Wednesday the Vikings are planning to move into the spring with J.J. McCarthy as their starting quarterback, giving the 10th overall pick in the 2024 draft plenty of first-team work in their offseason program after rebuffing multiple trade offers for him. The Vikings are still in the market for a veteran quarterback to pair with McCarthy; they could sign one to a deal or at a date that won't jeopardize their chances for compensatory picks in the 2026 draft, or trade for one this spring. But the prospect of Rodgers coming to Minnesota seems dead for now.

The Vikings' intrigue in the four-time MVP was at least strong enough to entertain a conversation; if they could get one great season from a centered and collegial Rodgers, they might be able to pair the 41-year-old with a talented roster and make a Super Bowl run. But the idea always ran against two currents: what Rodgers would do if he came to Minnesota, and the Vikings' optimism about what McCarthy could achieve after a year to learn their system.

McCarthy missed his rookie season after tearing the meniscus in his right knee during the team's first preseason game, but once he completed his rehab, he had a year to absorb the Vikings' verbose offense without the pressure of executing it in a game during his first season. Kirk Cousins has said it takes three years for a quarterback to feel fully comfortable in an offensive system; if Sam Darnold had returned for the 2025 season, the Vikings believed he would have been better during his second season.

The time McCarthy could devote to immersing himself fully in the offense, however, made the Vikings hopeful he could command it more assertively in his first season on the field. He is back over 200 pounds after shedding weight while rehabbing his knee. He's been working on the field since January, and the trade calls from other teams served as a tacit endorsement of McCarthy's potential from around the league. As carefully as the Vikings managed his timeline as a rookie, it's unlikely they'll put him in the Week 1 lineup if they come out of the spring and summer with questions about his readiness; their pursuit of a veteran QB will give them an insurance policy for that scenario. But their approach in free agency left plenty of breadcrumbs about their belief in his progress.

The Vikings made more than $300 million of contract commitments in the first 10 days of free agency, changing two starting spots on their offensive line while giving themselves two Pro Bowl defensive tackles for the first time since 2018 after defensive coordinator Brian Flores passionately campaigned for pass-rushing upgrades at the position. The deals came with backloaded salary arrangements and void years that pushed money into future seasons; they suggested the Vikings were following their plan to build around a young quarterback on a rookie contract.

It's unlikely the Vikings will publicly dismiss the idea of signing Rodgers; the four-QB saga of 2023 is a reminder why they'll never say never. The one scenario that might still lead Rodgers to Minnesota is if he came on a team-friendly deal, with the understanding McCarthy would get to compete for the starting job. The idea that a quarterback of Rodgers' pedigree would accept such an arrangement seems particularly far-fetched.

And so it appears the Rodgers-to-the-Vikings idea will be nothing more than a dalliance, for a 14-3 team that let its starter leave in free agency while trying to time when its QB of the future will end his incubation period. It led to plenty of chatter from every corner of the sports commentariat, about a future Hall of Famer whose every move invites discourse.

This week, though, it has appeared that's as close as the Vikings will get to Rodgers' orbit. If the future Hall of Famer's next move is the last of his brilliant career, it looks like he'll land in a place that finally deviates from the Favre path.

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