• Kickoff: Noon Sunday
  • Where: U.S. Bank Stadium
  • TV: Fox
  • Radio: KFAN-FM 100.3; SiriusXM 229, 820 (Vikings), 384, 801 (Falcons)
  • Line: Vikings by 5½

If the season ended today, these two teams would meet in Atlanta for a first-round playoff game. But first, it's Kirk Cousins' return to U.S. Bank Stadium, as the Falcons quarterback tries to shake off a three-game losing streak where he's thrown six interceptions without a touchdown. His last win was against Mike Zimmer's Cowboys defense; the Vikings will try to stop him from beating Kevin O'Connell, too.

Here's a look at what to expect between the Vikings and the Falcons:

The biggest story line

Cousins returns to town: You didn't expect it would be anything else, did you? The Vikings tried to bring Cousins back this spring, and it's clear the quarterback still has plenty of affection for Minnesota. He said this week his wife, Julie, was traveling to town a couple days early to enjoy some time in the Twin Cities and reconnect with friends before the game. Defensive tackle Harrison Phillips said that he hopes fans welcome Cousins "in an appropriate way," and that he'll catch up with the quarterback Sunday. But there's little doubt this game carries something extra, especially in what's likely to be a charged environment.

Vikings offense vs. Falcons defense

Jefferson could see Terrell: The Falcons have played enough split-safety coverage under coordinator Jimmy Lake that their approach to Justin Jefferson could mirror what the Vikings have seen for weeks. But if Atlanta tries to play any man coverage on Jefferson, A.J. Terrell would likely be the one to do it. Terrell, taken six picks ahead of Jefferson in 2020, is the Falcons' best cover corner, and could help them if they try to devote coverage elsewhere. "It's pick your poison," Lake said Thursday. "You've got to make these coverages really muddy for these quarterbacks, and you can't stay in one coverage."

Oliver's return could boost run game: The Vikings will get tight end Josh Oliver back from an ankle injury, putting their best blocking tight end back on the field against a Falcons defense that's struggled to stop the run this year. Falcons opponents have been successful on 44.5% of their runs, the fourth-highest rate in the league this season. Veteran Grady Jarrett will give the Vikings a challenge in the middle of the line, but Aaron Jones could be in for a productive day if he can curb his fumbling issues.

Vikings defense vs. Falcons offense

Flores could come after Cousins: In the Vikings' offseason program last year, defensive coordinator Brian Flores threw enough different looks at the Vikings' offense that Cousins seemed particularly irritated about the difficulty he had working through what was supposed to be an easy practice. The chess match continued through training camp, and on Sunday, the Vikings' defense gets its shot at Cousins for real. The torn right Achilles tendon Cousins suffered last October at Lambeau Field has sapped his mobility; he leads the NFL in interceptions this year, and he's thrown seven of them with his feet planted while no other QB has more than three, according to Sports Info Solutions. Flores and O'Connell know what will frustrate Cousins; Josh Metellus said this week the Vikings will throw plenty of different looks at him.

Falcons could lean on Robinson: Running back Bijan Robinson, the eighth pick in the 2023 draft, has become the focal point of the Falcons' offense through coordinator Zac Robinson's zone scheme. He's averaged more than 5 yards per carry on outside zone runs, according to Sports Info Solutions, and he's posted a 58% success rate on all of his carries, while ranking ninth in the league with 885 yards. As difficult as the Vikings have been to run against, it will be interesting to see how long the Falcons stick with Robinson; they'd likely prefer to stay out of a dropback game with Cousins.

Injury report

Vikings

  • Out: CB Stephon Gilmore (hamstring)
  • Questionable: OLB Patrick Jones II (knee), DL Harrison Phillips (back), G Dalton Risner (back), OLB Andrew Van Ginkel (thigh)

Falcons

  • Out: RB Jase McClellan (knee)
  • Questionable: CB Mike Hughes (neck), DL Ruke Orhorhoro (ankle)

Prediction

Flores said this week he's expecting Cousins' best on Sunday, and the Falcons know what this game means to their quarterback. But if the Vikings can contain Robinson, this feels like a bad matchup for Cousins. He has been pressured enough this season without blitzes that the Vikings could sit back in coverage and try to confuse him into making mistakes. And when they do come after Cousins, he could struggle to get away from free rushers. Emotions will be high in this one, but if the Vikings can manage them, they'll beat the Falcons and get to 11-2. Vikings 24, Falcons 17

To get exclusive analysis on the Vikings by Ben Goessling in your inbox every Friday, sign up for the free Access Vikings newsletter. Email your Vikings questions to accessvikings@startribune.com.