Minnesotans are watching budgets for holiday feasts, but the parties will go on

Nick Xiong and his siblings are working together to keep the budget steady for this year's Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings at his home in Anoka.

"We all pitch in to help each other," he said. "We always try to keep each other accountable and keep it within the budget and not spend unnecessarily."

While not quite going full BYOT — bring your own turkey — more holiday hosts are adapting to high food prices with potlucks, shorter guest lists, store brands and bargain hunting. Stores are helping with better holiday meal deals this year.

Anything to avoid canceling the party altogether.

"We're seeing much more frugal behavior, but the celebrations are going to happen," said Matt Marsh, managing partner at Deloitte in Minneapolis. "The consumer will spend what they feel they need to spend to make that holiday season meaningful for them, their family and friends."

A third of Twin Cities residents will host a holiday gathering this year, according to a Deloitte survey, and the hosts plan to spend about $250 on average.

Nearly 40% of those hosts will ask guests to bring something to share. But no need to ask — 92% of survey respondents said they plan to bring food or drink as guests.

Eric Weiss and his husband will be bringing something to every party they'll be attending, and he's not too worried about breaking the bank.

"There's a ton of sales right now, and I feel like the prices are probably similar to where they were in 2019, 2020," the St. Anthony Village man said while shopping this month at Rosedale Center in Roseville.

With careful planning around holiday meals, maybe a precooked package from a grocery store, a low-cost bundle from Target or Walmart or shopping over multiple stores, the bill for the feast could have a pre-pandemic feel.

"We've made it through this inflationary cycle," Marsh said. "But we still have to make it through this year."

One-stop shops

Target is selling a four-person Thanksgiving meal special for $20, which is $5 cheaper than last year. The Minneapolis-based retailer is battling Walmart's "inflation-free" Thanksgiving meal deals and Aldi's $47 feast for 10.

"Something that really differentiates Target is our one-stop shop for everything that you need for the holiday season," said Rick Gomez, the company's chief commercial officer.

You can buy your gifts and have your turkey, too, the retailers figure.

"They're really trying to emphasize value and ease by having this all-in-one solution," said Amanda Lai, director of McMillanDoolittle's food practice. "The one-stop-shop can help them beat competitors this holiday season.

"And they're pulling those deals earlier in the year so shoppers can spread their budgets."

Cub waited until Sunday to announce its turkey prices this year, meanwhile, and like other grocery stores, the chain will have precooked options available as consumers remain willing to pay a premium for convenience over the holidays.

"We've done a lot of work to improve the quality of that food," said Andre Persaud, CEO of retail for Cub parent UNFI. "And we doubled down on local marketing for that."

Cub also has an uncooked meal deal starting at $35, he said.

"Others have come out with a lower number, but when we look at our offering it's a much larger turkey and we include a full-size dessert," Persaud said. "And we will have the most attractive turkey pricing."

Lai said grocers often lose money on turkeys — in industry parlance, that's a loss leader, like Costco's rotisserie chicken. Hy-Vee once again this year is giving away a turkey with the purchase of a ham. It's an essential tactic to compete with mass retailers leeching grocery dollars.

"The turkey gets you in the door," she said. "The intent is to get the customer to buy all their other items there, too."

Where to save

Half of Americans making less than $100,000 are concerned about holiday meal costs, and more than a third of higher-income folks are, too, according to Deloitte.

One of the easiest ways to save is with store brands.

"Cost-conscious shoppers who are not overly brand loyal have the best chance for realizing the biggest savings when shopping for this year's Thanksgiving feast," according to a Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute report.

"Bottom line, there are good buys to be found with both name brand and store brand products if one takes the time to do comparison shopping."

Rapid inflation and lingering high prices have boosted so-called private label offerings, which don't carry the same low-quality stigma as they did years ago.

"It's not your mother's private label anymore," Lai said.

Marsh at Deloitte said holidays are a cultural and financial priority, so saving money isn't always the goal with annual celebrations.

Steve Conway will host both a Thanksgiving and Christmas gathering in Little Canada with more than 20 people at each. "The things I need are pretty reasonable," the 77-year-old said, "so I don't find that I have to budget right now."

Economic optimism is on the rise, surveys show, and Marsh said that should make for good results for retailers and full tables at Thanksgiving dinner.

"Consumers will stretch their dollars to have the experience they want to have," he said. "It's an important part of their life."

Caleb Fravel contributed to this story.