Grand Avenue may still be a bit worn, but it's rebuilding, thanks to the leadership of independent retailers committed to the important St. Paul commercial strip.

The once nearly defunct Grand Avenue Business Association is back, with membership at 80 businesses, up from a mere five in 2021. While a staggering number of shops have closed, 32 new stores and restaurants have opened along the avenue.

Among the newcomers are Evergreen Collective, Catzen Coffee, Roseline's Place and Mick's Bottle Shop. Russell's neighborhood bar and restaurant opened this month in the space vacated by the longstanding Tavern on Grand.

Yet the locations of former magnets — Anthropology, J.W. Hulme Co., Salut, Pottery Barn, J. Crew, Trade Winds and Restoration Hardware — remain empty.

Having survived the pandemic, a flurry of store closings, a distracting election and inflation, Grand Avenue retailers insist they are more than ready for holiday shoppers — and for profit ledgers to glide from red to black.

"There certainly has been a lot of tough news about Grand Avenue having store closures and such. But we [think] this is a good kickoff to maybe a stronger holiday season," said Chris Jensen, board president of the Grand Avenue Business Association. "We have accomplished so many things" to revive the area.

The new Music On Grand school just moved into empty space by the Walgreens store at Grand and Grotto. Baking Betty's Gourmet Cookies opened last month in the Mac Groveland area. The GoodThings gift store by Grand and Lexington Avenue just announced it will expand by taking over the shuttered 1,800-square-foot Wuollet's Bakery site next door by spring.

And soon, there will be an explosion of holiday events to woo visitors and help shops finish the year strong, even as forecasters call for just a modest increase in spending this year. "We're excited," Jensen said.

Trying to predict holidays is a tricky business

Some of the veteran shop owners concede there's a lot riding on the season.

Red Balloon owner Holly Weinkauf expects this holiday to again generate about 30% of her annual revenue, which runs between $1 million and $5 million depending on the year.

Given that inflation has increased the cost of books along with everything else, "I'm expecting [sales] to be a little bit up, not in a crazy way," she said. "It's nice to be on this end of the pandemic. The first year of COVID-19, sales plunged roughly 25%."

To pull in customers and sales, her 891 Grand Av. store will finish the year by hosting a 40th anniversary party, two Christmas book signings, an event featuring giant In the Heart of the Beast puppets, and a book drive where shoppers get 20% discounts on books donated to charity.

"Trying to predict anything is very tricky, but we're feeling good going into the holidays," Weinkauf said.

Tyler Conrad, owner of GoodThings gift and apparel store, said the election preoccupied shoppers, and sales are down about 5%.

The Christmas season is his make-or-break. This year he has exclusive Vikings sweatshirts among his sports inventory and kids' fidget toys.

"We do 40% of our business in six weeks. It's that much," he said. "That's why it's so dangerous."

If the cash register is kind this year, it will help fund the expansion into the bakery space next door in the spring. He will move his children's section in there and feature several product lines not seen on Grand since Creative Kidstuff closed in 2019.

Two miles west of the GoodThings shop, Darin Rinne and Scott Fares went a little overboard on holiday inventory at their Wet Paint art supply store at 1684 Grand Avenue. Some 100,000 product catalogs arrived from the printer last week. About 80,000 hit Midwest doorsteps this week. Another 10,000 were mailed to artists, colleges and art schools as far away as Boston.

"We're ready," Rinne said. "I'm optimistic [Christmas will generate] single-digit positive growth through the end of the year. We've already started seeing some holiday buyers."

They have seen interest increase for paint kits, water colors, fancy mechanical pens and children's crafts. Having so many products early, they said, should ensure the 48-year-old store beats economists' sales growth targets.

Provided customers can "shake off" the election stress and not just "hunker down" through the holidays, they should be able to meet their goals. Wet Paint sales currently exceed $1 million a year and Rinne wants to keep it that way.

Frattallone's Hardware and Garden district manager John Imholte is hoping the same. "We think it's gonna be a good season," he said.

The store is stocked with $15,000 in wreaths, spruce boughs and glitter sticks in the outdoor courtyard near Grand and Dale Avenue. Add to that its annual big seller - freshly cut Christmas trees.

Business was brisk during the pandemic as neighbors burrowed into home improvement projects. But like its big box cousins, Home Depot and Lowe's, sales have since leveled off, especially with last year's lack of snow. Imholte was delighted when it snowed this Halloween.

"Hopefully a white Christmas will get everybody in the Christmas mood," he said while lining up shovels for sale. "I'm always an optimist. ... You know, people come and they go [from Grand Avenue] for various reasons, but usually somebody takes over and it's either better or just different. And different is always good."

Moving beyond empty storefronts

Simon Taghioff, president of the Summit Hill Association, definitely sees the mood sour with empty storefronts.

"But when you look behind that, you can see there have also been new business openings and investments," he said.

There's the new Russell's restaurant, the Music on Grand school that moved into the old Coulee Bank location by Walgreens, the new Catzen Coffee shop and the year-old, five-story Kenton House apartments and retail complex that replaced the Dixie's on Grand building.

"You can definitely point to closures. But there are investments taking place too. This is necessary change to take Grand Avenue forward," Taghioff said.

Still, proposed changes on the block have produced some anxiety even as vendors string up lights and holly.

Developer Ari Parritz recently announced his plans to buy the Victoria Crossing East mall building that houses Paper Source, the recently shuttered Trade Winds women's clothing store and the former Billy's on Grand bar, now Gather.

"Business has been good. And we are hoping for a really good holiday season even with the news about the building," Paper Source duty manager Christine Miller told a customer one recent afternoon as employees took down a Halloween display and spruced up two Christmas merchandise racks.

While the building isn't expected to get bulldozed until 2025 or 2026, Miller assured customers and one worried employee that the store "will figure it out. We need the shopping to continue on Grand Avenue."

Customers, she said, have told her they want the store to stay.

Plan to attract more shoppers

Now that the Grand Avenue Business Association has some heft again, it is trying to revive the excitement around the commercial corridor, especially during the holidays. Along with city officials and shopkeepers, it is planning the largest Grand Meander since 2019 on Dec. 7. The goal: attracting 10,000 visitors.

"It's definitely going to be a lot more involved this year. Ideally I'm hoping [all the shops and restaurants] generate 50% more in sales than on a typical Saturday," said Jensen, the association's president.

Eighty shops and restaurants are participating this year, with soup tastings, trolley rides, firetruck rides, "Fa La Llamas," costumed carolers, Santa, product specials and a shop decoration contest. A panel of celebrity judges and shoppers will rate the best store windows and soups.

"What we're seeing is much greater engagement and participation from individual retailers and business owners — to the point where you can start putting on events and getting critical mass," Jensen said.

The hope is the event centers people back on the commercial strip as a place to wander and shop, not just eat.

"What we're trying to do is use things like Christmas to kind of get people out and sort of anchor them and get them used to shopping on Grand," said the Summit Hill Association's Taghioff.