Mark Craig's Super Bowl preview and prediction: Three rings for Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs or redemption for the 49ers?

• Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. Sunday
• Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
• TV: CBS, Nickelodeon, Paramount+
• Line: 49ers by 2½

FOUR STORY LINES

Repeat or redemption?

The Chiefs' Andy Reid is vying to be the NFL's first repeat Super Bowl winner in 19 years while 49ers counterpart Kyle Shanahan seeks redemption from two of the biggest blown leads in the game's history. A win would make Reid the fifth coach with three rings, joining Bill Belichick (6), Chuck Noll (4), Joe Gibbs (3) and Bill Walsh (3). Would Reid, who turns 66 next month, seriously consider walking away after this game — with Patrick Mahomes in his prime, for gosh sakes — as some have suggested he's considering? Shanahan, the son of two-time Super Bowl winner Mike Shanahan, is looking for his first ring. He was Falcons offensive coordinator the year they infamously blew a 28-3 lead to Tom Brady and the Patriots. Four years ago, he was 49ers coach when Mahomes and Reid erased a 20-10 fourth-quarter deficit to win their first rings.

G.O.A.T. in the making?

Mahomes, 28, will be the youngest quarterback to start his fourth Super Bowl — two years younger than Brady was when he started his fourth one in 2007. With a win, Mahomes would join Brady and Troy Aikman as the only QBs to collect three rings before their 30th birthdays. Aikman finished with three. Brady won a record seven followed by Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana with four apiece. Then there's San Francisco's uber-efficient Brock Purdy. All this 24-year-old has done since becoming the 262nd and final pick of the 2022 draft is post an .808 winning percentage (21-5) while averaging 9.2 yards per attempt with a 49-15 touchdown-to-interception differential and a 111.2 passer rating — all tops in NFL history among QBs with at least 20 starts, including the postseason.

Which defense will prevail?

Believe it or not, defense still matters in a league that takes no shame in continually reshaping its rulebook to handcuff defenders. Statistically, the Chiefs and 49ers offer one of the best defensive matchups in Super Bowl history. The Chiefs allowed only 17.3 points per game during the regular season, second behind Baltimore. The 49ers were third (17.5). The 49ers took a slight step backward under defensive coordinator Steve Wilks after DeMeco Ryans' 2022 outfit led the league in fewest points (16.3) and yards allowed. Meanwhile, 64-year-old Steve Spaguolo has overseen the best defense in Reid's 11 seasons in Kansas City — all winning campaigns. Since its stellar regular season, the Chiefs' defense has allowed just 41 points in three games, holding Miami to 7 and Baltimore to 10 while posting five takeaways and two road victories over the AFC's top two seeds.

Can a RB win Super Bowl MVP?

Yes, running backs are still a thing in the NFL. And no, they aren't all interchangeable parts. See: McCaffrey, Christian. The 49ers' 27-year-old All-Pro is the league's highest-paid running back at $16 million a year. And he's worth every penny, and more. McCaffrey and Hall of Famer Terrell Davis are the only players in league history to average at least 110 yards from scrimmage in both the regular season and postseason (minimum 75 and five games, respectively). McCaffrey averaged a league-high 126.4 during the regular season and 130 in two postseason games. He had a league-high 21 touchdowns in the regular season and four more in the postseason. Quarterbacks have won Super Bowl MVP 32 times. Running backs have won it seven times, the last being Davis 22 years ago when Denver won the first of back-to-back titles.

THREE X FACTORS

Warner vs. Smiling Swifties

If Taylor Swift's perpetual game-day giddiness becomes a teary-eyed frowny face, chances are 49ers linebacker Fred Warner will be partly to blame. According to Next Gen Stats, Swift bestie/Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce led all NFL tight ends in regular-season receiving yards (393) when the nearest defender was a linebacker. On the flip side, NGS says Warner allowed only a 61.9 passer rating as the nearest defender in coverage, best among NFL linebackers. Kelce had only five touchdown catches in 16 regular-season games, but had three in Kansas City's last two playoff wins.

Williams vs. K.C. pass rush

It's no coincidence Purdy looked shockingly human when left tackle Trent Williams was sidelined by injury in back-to-back losses to the Vikings and Bengals in Weeks 7-8. Williams, a 35-year-old future Hall of Famer, is an 11-time Pro Bowler heading into his first Super Bowl. Only three other players earned as many Pro Bowls prior to their first Super Bowls: Champ Bailey (12), Bruce Matthews (12) and Reggie White (11). Purdy was pressured 40 times in those losses — the most in a two-game stretch this season — while the 49ers were held to a season-low 17 points in each loss. The Chiefs' defense led the league in sacks per pass attempt during the regular season, but was dealt a blow when Charles Omenihu went down with a knee injury in the win at Baltimore.

Keeping an eye on kickers

The point spread – 49ers by 2½ — is tighter than a field goal, so, yeah, keep an eye on those kickers. And, yeah, big-time advantage K.C. Chiefs veteran Harrison Butker has made 7 of 7 field goals and 7 of 7 PATs in the postseason. He made 94.3% (33-of-35) of his regular-season field goals and was 5-for-5 from 50-plus. 49ers rookie Jake Moody is 3-of-5 on field goals in the postseason and has missed four kicks (three field goals, one PAT) in his last three games. He made 84% (21-of-25) of his regular-season field goals.

TWO UNSUNG HEROES

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs running back: The guy who was drafted only 11 spots higher than Purdy in the 2022 seventh round is expected to join Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett (1977-78) as the only running backs to start Super Bowls in each of their first two seasons. While Pacheco is firmly in McCaffrey's shadow, his impact can change games and make Mahomes even more dangerous. The 5-10, 216-pounder runs with ferocity, which couples nicely with the Chiefs' newfound defensive grit to make this the toughest, most physical team Reid has had in Kansas City. Pacheco has scored in every postseason game this year. The Chiefs are 11-2 when he rushes for at least 50 yards this season. He'll be a handful for a 49ers run defense that's allowed 318 yards in two postseason games.

Aaron Banks, 49ers left guard: A second-round pick in 2021, Banks has surrendered no sacks and only seven QB hits in 553 snaps, including postseason. He'll be tasked with helping prevent All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones from blowing the 49ers' game plan to smithereens. Jones ranked second among defensive tackles in sacks (10.5), QB hits (33) and pressures (75) this season. Like most quarterbacks, Purdy doesn't handle pressure right in front of him well. Banks has quietly kept the front of the pocket clean this season.

ONE BOLD PREDICTION

The 49ers will score first on a McCaffrey (who else?) touchdown, avoiding the slow starts that dogged them in the playoffs against the Packers and Lions. Mahomes, of course, won't flinch, but will trail 24-20 with the 49ers driving midway through the fourth quarter. Poor Shanahan will be dealt another Super Bowl-sized sucker punch when Chiefs All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie — the best blitzing corner in the league and, yes, one of the many standouts the Vikings could have drafted had they not traded down 20 spots to select Lewis Cine in 2022 — notches a strip-sack takeaway. Enter Mahomes and, well, you know what'll happen next. Chiefs 27, 49ers 24.

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