What Twin Cities Marathon organizers have learned after 2023′s heat cancellation

Coming off one of their darkest moments last fall, organizers of this weekend's Twin Cities Marathon say they have learned from the hardship of canceling the event at the last minute in 2023. Now they are preparing for the best participation in years.

Last year, Twin Cities in Motion (TCM) was forced to call off the 26.2-mile marathon and 10-mile race on the morning of the events. An already extreme weather forecast of heat and humidity worsened just hours before about 20,000 runners were to set to race Oct. 1.

Organizers spent the entire prior week monitoring a series of hot days. They anticipated holding the Sunday event in what's known in racing as red-flag conditions — a warning that running is potentially dangerous and participants should take precautions. TCM alerted runners in a series of emails through that Saturday night. Then, overnight, the weather forecast intensified, calling for record-setting heat in the low 90s and pushing the conditions to black flag, or cancellation.

The abrupt, bad news went out to runners at 5:14 a.m. Sunday. The reaction was swift online and on the streets, where some had to be informed that the races were off. Some people voiced disappointment tinged with support of TCM's precautionary move; others were angry. TCM organizers estimate 20% to 30% of registered runners for both events ran some or all of the courses, anyway.

In the months since the fateful day, TCM officials said they have stepped up their preparation for this year — and marathon weekend races to come — in several significant ways.

Race officials considered anew what many outsiders have questioned: Should the race date be moved later in the month in the hope of better weather conditions? TCM President Dean Orton said the group pored over historical data that looked back decades, checking its traditional race date (first Sunday in October) with the help of National Weather Service and state climatologists. The conclusion: Altering the date wouldn't guarantee better conditions, Orton said.

"There was a fairly weak trend that we might see more black-flag conditions [like last year's]," Orton said last week. "Nothing in that work said we needed to move immediately or we felt like we needed to move immediately."

Organizers rely on the wet-bulb globe temperature, which the Weather Service says is the most accurate way to measure heat stress. The temperature takes into account not just air temperature but also humidity, wind and sunlight.

Orton added that the organization also is committed to a second study of weather data from researchers at Western Kentucky University. TCM will begin next year looking at whether a date change is worthwhile in 2026 or later years. Orton said the organization also needs to account for how a move could affect their partners in government, volunteers and runners' commitment.

TCM also participated in an urban heat study that analyzes specific conditions on the course, mile to mile. Its focus is where, within the 26 miles, was more heat being generated, depending on time of day or, say, shade. While organizers haven't yet seen the results, they hope the study will inform their safety preparedness, too.

"Anything that we feel we can do that would help us make it a better, safer day, and continue to have the best science, that is the work we've been doing," Orton added.

Organizers also learned from preparing to operate in red-flag conditions last year. They had beefed up medical teams with personnel and methods to protect runners. They planned, for example, misting fans, more cooling towels and ice, and medics on bikes monitoring the course. They even had considered adding air conditioning in the finish area medical tent.

TCM now is operating as if red-flag conditions are the base line, Orton said. AC units in the medical tent, for example, aren't just a contingency this year. Shade tents for medical workers and runners are available along the course. The tents and workers also are more visible to spectators and runners streaming by.

"Just really preparing as if it's going to be warm," race director Ed Whetham said. "And if it's not warm, obviously we're prepared and we have all of that."

TCM organizers presented what they experienced and learned to a gathering of national race officials last February during the U.S. Olympic marathon trials in Orlando, Fla. Another takeaway they shared, Whetham said, was the need to improve internal decisionmaking and external communication timelines in uncertain conditions.

"Our timeline this year is, move up an hour," Whetham said. "We can tighten up our decisionmaking process. … From there, we can make cleaner, tighter communication decisions."

Ready to run

A year later, it's apparent at TCM offices in St. Paul that the lost weekend last October still stings even while most of the feedback was positive.

"The majority of folks got it. They understood. It doesn't mean they were happy, but at least they were accepting of, 'Hey, it was a decision that had to be made,'" Orton said.

In general, what's also clear in words — and race registrations this year — is that last autumn's meltdown hasn't dimmed the popularity of marathon weekend.

Mill City Running is a metro running store that has an active race team with about 1,000 members and hosts weekly community runs open to all-comers.

Andrea Haus, who is running Sunday's TC 10-mile, said the excitement is back and that the weekend remains a point of pride. "For local runners here, the Twin Cities Marathon weekend is like our Super Bowl," added Haus, Mill City Running's community and marketing manager.

TCM's moves in the wake of the cancellation, like full refunds and special early registration to this year's events for 2023 participants, also garnered goodwill, Haus said. At least 9,700 who had signed up last year are signed up to run their same events this weekend, TCM communications manager Charlie Mahler said.

A third of the marathon field each year is new — participants doing their first marathon, Orton said, and that data point has made committing to informing runners about training and smart preparation paramount.

"We've realized there are a lot of folks new to the huge challenge of safely running a marathon," Orton said. "How do we help them even more? Even if you have run eight of them, I would assume there is always something more to learn."

This weekend could be a banner event, TCM officials said. The current Weather Service forecast for Sunday is sunny with a high near 72, with a low of about 56 Saturday night.

"In totality, we are looking at [runner] numbers that are as good as we've ever done," Whetham said. This weekend's races, including Saturday's 10-kilometer run, 5K and family events in St. Paul, will have the most participants since before the pandemic, with upward of 28,000 (12,000 in the 10 mile and 9,000, a sellout, in the marathon). "The response has been good and really encouraging."