Local stores expect a boost from Super Saturday's holiday shopping procrastinators

This year's mild fall and near snow-free December lulled Marsha Mose into thinking she had plenty of time to Christmas shop.

"Then, I thought, 'Oh my gosh, it's coming up,'" Mose said.

Realizing Christmas is Monday, she drove from her Hudson home to shop for gifts Thursday morning at Golden Fig Fine Foods in St. Paul, picking up dark chocolate sea salt covered cashews and hunting for just the right candy bars for the foodies in her life.

"Saturday should be crazy," Golden Fig owner Laurie McCann Crowell said.

Nearly 142 million people plan to shop on "Super Saturday" — the last Saturday before Christmas, according to the latest survey from the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. That's down from nearly 159 million on Saturday, Dec. 17, last year, a full eight days from Christmas.

Still, the retail federation expects holiday spending to reach record levels, totaling between $957 billion and $967 billion, a 3% to 4% boost from 2022. Last year, holiday sales totaled nearly $930 billion.

This year offers a full extra weekend to shop after Thanksgiving compared to 2022.

And yet local retailers expect strong sales to come this weekend with many residents, accustomed to wintry weather at this time, realizing the window to shop for Christmas is closing.

Nationwide, retailers have stepped up sales and other enticements in the final days before Christmas to lure shoppers awaiting the best deals, or those who didn't have time to buy gifts earlier. Michaels, the arts and crafts chain, trimmed prices on holiday trees by up to 75% on Dec. 15, discounts that typically don't arrive until the day after Christmas.

As some shoppers face the return of student loan payments, higher interest rates and inflation (which is slowing), Minnesota-based Best Buy and Target forecast sales dips for the holiday period.

There had been rising concern among retailers leading up to the holiday about the willingness of Americans to spend. Credit card debt and delinquencies have risen and savings are falling. Consumers, however, unexpectedly picked up their spending from October to November as the holiday season kicked off, underscoring the lure of shopping despite higher costs.

Smaller shops may be at an advantage because they can be nimble in adjusting their product mix when a vendor aggressively raises prices, according to Dan Marshall, co-owner of Mischief Toy Store in St. Paul.

Managing expectations also is simpler. "We don't have investors to please," he said. "We don't have to have world record sales every holiday."

As many feel the economy is heading for a soft landing rather than recession, Minnesota is experiencing a strong labor market with job gains outpacing the nation. Though recent wage gains in Minnesota and nationally are outpacing current inflation of 3.1%, they haven't caught up to the 18% increase in the consumer price index of the past three years.

Mose, the Golden Fig shopper, said she dines out less to cope. "You can still buy high-quality stuff if you balance it out in other ways," she said.

The sticker shock consumers faced last year seems to be losing its grip on Christmas shoppers this year at Mischief Toy Store.

"When they come in the store, they're looking for something that jumps out at them for who they're shopping for," Marshall said. "Price is a secondary thing."

Katie Peterson, who earlier this year opened Honey P's Boutique in Excelsior, specializing in kids' clothing from $25 to $125, sees customers either picking out one higher-priced piece or a number of less expensive items.

Peterson filled the shop with new merchandise to prepare for this weekend. She's fielded calls all week about her weekend hours.

"The amount of moms wondering what my hours are this week is very telling," she said.

Marshall expects to see many procrastinators or shoppers who never received online orders this weekend.

"You end up selling 10 times what you normally do on a Saturday than any other day," he said. "It surprises me every year how busy a toy store at Christmas can be."

He's been coming in late at night to restock shelves to be ready as the store is short-staffed. Local retailers say they aren't as crunched for workers as recent years and are experiencing fewer supply chain issues this holiday season.

At Golden Fig on Thursday, Lief Davisson, who expects to Christmas shop this weekend, searched for a gift for his wife before returning to work.

"My wife and I like buying food for each other," he said. "It's nice having something consumable that goes away versus more clutter."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.