What is Northstar rail's fate? Likely more of the same, for now

As harried commuters arrived on the Northstar Commuter Rail platform in Minneapolis last week, Metropolitan Council Chair Charlie Zelle and other Metro Transit employees met them, bearing cookies and words of thanks.

The celebratory sweets marked Northstar's 15th birthday this month, a quiet milestone for rail service between Target Field and Big Lake that has struggled for relevance from the very beginning, especially after a precipitous decline in ridership during the pandemic.

The big question forever dogging Northstar is whether the line will ever connect to St. Cloud, as originally planned more than 15 years ago.

The current answer? No one knows. And, unlike previous years, there doesn't appear to be any groundswell of support bubbling up at the moment to make the final 28-mile connection between Big Lake and St. Cloud a reality.

"Northstar has never lived up to its aspirations," said Zelle, who, as the head of the Met Council, oversees transportation planning in the metro.

While Northstar has been successfully ferrying suburban Minnesota Twins and Vikings fans downtown on game days, Zelle said daily commuter service "falls into the challenges of express routes in general."

With the rise of hybrid work during the pandemic and pronounced shifts in the way people commute to work, Northstar provides three southbound trips and one northbound trip each weekday morning, and three northbound trips and one southbound trip on weekday afternoons. No weekend service is available, except for special events.

For now, Metro Transit's proposed operating budget preserves current service on Northstar. Whether that will change is unclear.

"We are continuously monitoring the situation and listening to riders," Metro Transit General Manager Lesley Kandaras said.

Extending Northstar to St. Cloud

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Northstar's ridership cratered by 93% — from about 767,000 daily rides in 2019 to roughly 50,400 at the height of the outbreak in 2021. Last year, ridership increased 26% over 2022 to 97,265 rides, with a taxpayer subsidy of about $116 per passenger. (The Green Line light rail, by comparison, had a per-passenger subsidy of $4.25 last year.)

Still, Metro Transit officials are encouraged by the uptick in Northstar's performance so far this year. Ridership through the end of September was slightly more than all of last year.

"It could be a very, very strong corridor," said Sen. Scott Dibble, DFL-Minneapolis, who chairs the Senate Transportation Committee at the State Capitol. "It's the train to nowhere right now."

Dibble said business communities in St. Cloud and along the route, as well as grassroots support from others are needed to rally support behind the connection. In addition, "the state plays a key role leading that effort and engagement," he said.

With the balance of power at the Legislature still being determined, possible funding for a Northstar connector to St. Cloud is a political wild card. Republican lawmakers have introduced legislation in recent years to mothball Northstar.

A Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT) study released in February estimated that the cost of extending service to St. Cloud would be either $554 million or $690 million, depending on the frequency of trips offered. Both options could qualify for some federal funding, according to the report. (Northstar cost $320 million to build in the late aughts; the project ran out of federal money before reaching St. Cloud.)

The service has some fervent fans.

"I love Northstar," said Scott Wittnebel, as he wheeled his electric fat bike last week after riding Northstar. "I wish there were more runs."

Wittnebel, a U.S. Army veteran, takes Northstar at least once a week to the Blue Line to get to appointments at the Minneapolis VA Health Care complex in south Minneapolis. Once there, he rides his bike in the area before heading home to Anoka on the afternoon Northstar train.

Possible Amtrak Borealis extension to Fargo

The passenger rail corridor in northwest Minnesota is getting a closer look, but not on Northstar's behalf. The success of Amtrak's new Borealis daily service between St. Paul and Chicago has prompted rail advocates to push for a continued connection between the Twin Cities and Fargo, partly along the same route as Northstar.

"We've been promoting that really hard," said Brian Nelson, president of the advocacy group All Aboard Minnesota. "We've met with communities, with every city between Fargo-Moorhead and the Twin Cities, and there's a tremendous amount of support for daytime passenger rail service."

As Nelson sees it, Amtrak Borealis service could serve the corridor with one trip a day in each direction, and include a stop in St. Cloud. Last summer, the Anoka City Council passed a resolution requesting that the northwestern suburb be considered as a stop for the line, should it happen.

Nelson said the Amtrak Borealis service would be different from Northstar's — focusing more on families, retirees and college students rather than daily commuters. The Borealis service, if realized, would be in addition to Amtrak's existing Empire Builder long-distance service between Chicago and Portland/Seattle.

The Empire Builder currently serves St. Cloud, Staples and Detroit Lakes before arriving in Fargo. Nelson said the new Borealis service may consider additional stops in Little Falls and Wadena as well, but it wouldn't affect Northstar's service.

MnDOT is currently studying the Borealis connection to Fargo, part of a statewide review of transportation needs, with findings expected during next year's legislative session.