The Star Tribune, MPR News, KARE 11 and FRONTLINE, the PBS series, interviewed 800 Minnesota likely voters between Sept. 9 and Sept. 13. That sample included interviews with 537 self-identified white registered voters and 157 African-American registered voters. During the same period, an additional 343 interviews were conducted with African-American registered voters in Minneapolis who indicated they are likely to vote in November, for a total of 500 interviews. This is commonly referred to as an "oversample," and allows for an apples-to-apples comparison of the responses of white voters and Black voters, with similar margins of sampling error.

Findings from questions about policing in Minneapolis and the public safety charter amendment are below. Results from the August 2020 Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota poll, in which Minneapolis voters were asked several of these questions, are also included. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Scroll down the page for details about how the poll was conducted the demographics of the respondents.

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Minneapolis Police Department?

Minneapolis voters
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
33% 53% 14%
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
TOTAL 33% 53% 14%
Male 39% 46% 15%
Female 28 59 13
White 34 51 15
Black 28 58 14
18-34 28 60 12
35-49 33 54 13
50-64 36 51 13
65+ 37 45 18
No college degree 29 60 11
College graduate 36 48 16
DFL/Democrat 27 59 14
Republican 85 11 4
Independent/other 33 50 17
Black voters
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
28% 58% 14%
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
TOTAL 28% 58% 14%
Male 32% 54% 14%
Female 26 60 14
Under 50 26 60 14
50+ 31 56 13
No college degree 28 61 11
College graduate 30 47 23

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Minneapolis Police Chief Medaria Arradondo?

Minneapolis voters
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
55% 22% 23%
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
TOTAL 55% 22% 23%
Male 54% 24% 22%
Female 57 19 24
White 56 23 21
Black 75 9 16
18-34 49 26 25
35-49 54 22 24
50-64 59 19 22
65+ 59 20 21
No college degree 56 21 23
College graduate 55 22 23
DFL/Democrat 59 19 22
Republican 60 25 15
Independent/other 46 28 26
Black voters
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
75% 9% 16%
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
TOTAL 75% 9% 16%
Male 73% 12% 15%
Female 75 7 18
Under 50 69 12 19
50+ 79 7 14
No college degree 74 9 17
College graduate 77 8 15

Do you think Minneapolis should or should not reduce the size of its police force?

Minneapolis voters
Should Should not Not sure
29% 55% 16%
Should Should not Not sure
TOTAL 29% 55% 16%
Male 27% 55% 18%
Female 29 57 14
White 33 51 16
Black 14 75 11
18-34 36 42 22
35-49 31 56 13
50-64 24 63 13
65+ 22 62 16
No college degree 25 60 15
College graduate 31 53 16
DFL/Democrat 33 53 14
Republican 13 79 8
Independent/other 22 57 21
Black voters
Should Should not Not sure
14% 75% 11%
Should Should not Not sure
TOTAL 14% 75% 11%
Male 13% 76% 11%
Female 16 74 10
Under 50 13 71 16
50+ 16 78 6
No college degree 14 74 12
College graduate 15 79 6

Do you support or oppose replacing the Minneapolis Police Department with a new Department of Public Safety, which may include police officers and will focus on public health, and giving the City Council more authority over public safety?

Minneapolis voters
Support Oppose Undecided
49% 41% 10%
Support Oppose Undecided
TOTAL 49% 41% 10%
Male 48% 41% 11%
Female 49 41 10
White 51 40 9
Black 42 47 11
18-34 57 35 8
35-49 51 38 11
50-64 45 43 12
65+ 39 50 11
No college degree 51 39 10
College graduate 47 42 11
DFL/Democrat 55 34 11
Republican 7 85 8
Independent/other 44 46 10
Black voters
Support Oppose Undecided
42% 47% 11%
Support Oppose Undecided
TOTAL 42% 47% 11%
Male 49% 42% 9%
Female 37 50 13
Under 50 45 48 7
50+ 39 46 15
No college degree 43 46 11
College graduate 38 50 12

In the last few years, do you feel crime in Minneapolis has increased, has been reduced or has stayed the same?

Minneapolis voters
Increased Reduced: 0% Same Not sure: 2%
73% 25%
Increased Reduced Same Not sure
TOTAL 73% 0% 25% 2%
Male 68% 0% 30% 2%
Female 78 0 21 1
White 71 0 27 2
Black 74 0 25 1
18-34 69 0 27 4
35-49 71 0 28 1
50-64 75 0 24 1
65+ 77 0 23 0
No college degree 73 0 25 2
College graduate 72 0 26 2
DFL/Democrat 72 0 26 2
Republican 81 0 19 0
Independent/other 72 0 26 2
Black voters
Increased Reduced: 0% Same Not sure: 1%
74% 25%
Increased Reduced Same Not sure
TOTAL 74% 0% 25% 1%
Male 70% 0% 28% 2%
Female 76 0 23 1
Under 50 74 0 25 1
50+ 73 0 26 1
No college degree 72 0 27 1
College graduate 81 0 19 0

If Minneapolis were to significantly reduce the size of its police force, what effect do you think it would have on public safety? Would it have a positive effect, a negative effect or no significant effect?

Minneapolis voters
Positive effect Negative effect No significant effect Not sure
20% 55% 12% 13%
Positive effect Negative effect No significant effect Not sure
TOTAL 20% 55% 12% 13%
Male 20 51 14 15
Female 21 59 10 10
White 21 52 13 14
Black 13 68 9 10
18-34 24 48 14 14
35-49 25 50 12 13
50-64 16 60 12 12
65+ 13 63 8 16
No college degree 21 57 10 12
College graduate 20 53 13 14
DFL/Democrat 21 52 14 13
Republican 9 79 6 6
Independent/other 22 54 10 14
Black voters
Positive effect Negative effect No significant effect Not sure
13% 68% 9% 10%
Positive effect Negative effect No significant effect Not sure
TOTAL 13% 68% 9% 10%
Male 19% 60% 10% 11%
Female 10 73 8 9
Under 50 15 66 9 10
50+ 12 69 8 11
No college degree 15 67 8 10
College graduate 10 71 11 8

About the poll

The findings of this Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11/FRONTLINE Minnesota Poll are based on live interviews conducted Sept. 9 to Sept. 13 with 800 Minneapolis registered voters who indicated that they are likely to vote in the November city election. That sample included interviews with 537 self-identified white registered voters and 157 African-American registered voters. During the same period, an additional 343 interviews were conducted with African-American registered voters in Minneapolis who indicated they are likely to vote in November, for a total of 500 interviews. This is commonly referred to as an "oversample," and allows for an apples-to-apples comparison of the responses of white voters and Black voters, with similar margins of sampling error. The findings of this oversample appear under "Black voters" in the data tables, but these additional interviews are otherwise not included among the main sample of 800 Minneapolis registered voters. Other racial demographics are not included in the poll question data tables due to the small number of interviews conducted. This poll was conducted for the Star Tribune, Minnesota Public Radio News, KARE 11 and FRONTLINE, the PBS series, by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy Inc.
Those interviewed were randomly selected by computer from a phone-matched Minneapolis voter registration list that included both land line and cellphone numbers. For the sample of 800 Minneapolis registered voters, 30% of the interviews were conducted via land line and 70% via cellphone. For the sample of 500 African-American registered voters, 23% of the interviews were conducted via land line and 77% via cellphone.
The margin of sampling error for the sample of 800 Minneapolis registered voters, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin of sampling error for the sample of 500 African-American Minneapolis registered voters is no more than ± 4.5 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.
Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion surveys, such as nonresponse, question wording or context effects. In addition, news events may have affected opinions during the period the poll was taken.
The self-identified party affiliation of the respondents of the sample of 800 Minneapolis registered voters is 65% Democrats, 7% Republicans and 28% independents or other. The self-identified party affiliation of the respondents of the sample of 500 African-American Minneapolis registered voters is 69% Democrats, less than 1% Republicans and 31% independents or other.
The demographic profile of this poll of registered voters is an accurate reflection of their respective voter populations. This determination is based on more than 100 statewide polls conducted by Mason-Dixon in Minnesota over the past 32 years – a period that spans eight presidential election cycles that began in 1988.
Readers can e-mail questions to matt.delong@startribune.com.

Demographics of Minneapolis voters

PARTY
DFL/Democrat 519 (65%)
Republican 53 (7%)
Independent/other 228 (28%)
AGE
18-34 198 (25%)
35-49 246 (31%)
50-64 194 (24%)
65+ 155 (19%)
Refused 7 (1%)
RACE
White/Caucasian 537 (67%)
Black/African American 157 (20%)
Hispanic/Latino 43 (5%)
Asian/Pacific Islander 46 (6%)
Other 13 (2%)
Refused 4 (1%)
GENDER ID
Male 376 (47%)
Female 414 (52%)
Other 10 (1%)
EDUCATION
High school or less 177 (22%)
Some college/Vocational 167 (21%)
College graduate 273 (34%)
Graduate degree 179 (22%)
Refused 4 (1%)
INTERVIEW
Landline 238 (30%)
Cellphone 562 (70%)

Demographics of Black Minneapolis voters

PARTY
DFL/Democrat 343 (69%)
Republican 3 (1%)
Independent/other 154 (31%)
AGE
18-34 114 (23%)
35-49 123 (25%)
50-64 139 (28%)
65+ 118 (23%)
Refused 6 (1%)
GENDER ID
Male 208 (42%)
Female 292 (58%)
Other 0 (0%)
EDUCATION
High school or less 221 (44%)
Some college/Vocational 174 (35%)
College graduate 76 (15%)
Graduate degree 27 (6%)
Refused 2 (<1%)
INTERVIEW
Land line 117 (23%)
Cellphone 383 (77%)