The Star Tribune, MPR News and KARE 11 interviewed 800 Minnesota registered voters between June 3 and June 5, 2024. All indicated they are likely to vote in the November general election. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Scroll down the page for details about how the poll was conducted, a map of the Minnesota regions used in this poll and the demographics of the 800 respondents.

If the 2024 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat; Donald Trump, the Republican; Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent; or someone else?

Biden Trump Kennedy Other: 2% Undecided
45% 41% 6%   7%
Biden Trump Kennedy Other Undecided
Hennepin/ Ramsey 65% 20% 5% 3% 8%
Rest of metro 35 47 8 1 8
Southern Minn. 34 53 7 1 5
Northern Minn. 36 53 5 1 5
Men 26 58 6 2 8
Women 62 25 7 1 6
DFL/ Democrat 93 <1 3 1 3
Republican <1 90 3 1 6
Independent/ other 35 37 13 3 12
18-34 53 35 7 1 5
35-49 48 33 8 2 10
50-64 42 43 6 1 7
65+ 38 51 5 2 4
No college degree 37 48 6 1 8
College graduate 53 33 6 2 6
White 42 43 6 2 7
Nonwhite 63 22 8 1 7
2020 Biden voters 87 1 5 2 5
2020 Trump voters 2 89 4 <1 5

How enthusiastic are you about your preferred presidential candidate this year?

Very Somewhat Not very Not at all
44% 30% 21% 5%
Very Somewhat Not very Not at all
2024 Biden voters 31% 36% 28% 5%
2024 Trump voters 62 21 14 4

Which one of the following issues is most influential in deciding your vote for president? 

Statewide Biden
voters		 Trump
voters
Protecting democracy 27% 47% 4%
The economy and jobs 26 11 40
Immigration 15 1 33
Law & order and crime 8 3 14
Climate change and the environment 7 15 0
Healthcare 7 13 1
Abortion 6 8 2
Israel-Hamas war 1 1 2
Supreme Court/ Judicial System 1 <1 2
Other 2 <1 3
Not Sure 1 <1 1

Do you approve or disapprove of Joe Biden's job performance as president?

Approve Disapprove Not sure: 1%
46% 53%  
Approve Disapprove Not sure
Hennepin/Ramsey 66% 32% 2%
Rest of metro 36 64 1
Southern Minn. 37 63 0
Northern Minn. 39 60 1
Men 29 70 1
Women 63 37 1
DFL/ Democrat 93 7 0
Republican 2 97 1
Independent/ other 39 60 2
18-34 56 44 0
35-49 49 49 3
50-64 44 56 0
65+ 40 60 1
No college degree 39 60 1
College graduate 54 45 1
White 44 56 1
Nonwhite 66 33 1
2024 Biden voters 94 5 <1
2024 Trump voters 3 96 1

Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump's job performance during his term as president?

Approve Disapprove Not sure: 2%
47% 52%  
Approve Disapprove Not sure
Hennepin/Ramsey 24% 74% 2%
Rest of metro 58 41 1
Southern Minn. 60 39 1
Northern Minn. 55 41 4
Men 64 33 3
Women 30 68 1
DFL/ Democrat 2 98 1
Republican 98 <1 2
Independent/ other 46 51 3
18-34 38 60 2
35-49 41 55 4
50-64 47 52 1
65+ 58 42 0
No college degree 54 44 2
College graduate 38 60 2
White 50 49 2
Nonwhite 26 73 2
2024 Biden voters 7 92 1
2024 Trump voters 95 3 1

Do you approve or disapprove of Amy Klobuchar's job performance as U.S. senator?

Approve Disapprove Not sure
55% 36% 9%
Approve Disapprove Not sure
Hennepin/Ramsey 72% 23% 5%
Rest of metro 49 42 9
Southern Minn. 44 43 13
Northern Minn. 45 43 12
Men 40 48 13
Women 68 26 6
DFL/ Democrat 91 7 2
Republican 15 66 19
Independent/ other 53 39 8
18-34 59 35 7
35-49 58 32 11
50-64 54 40 7
65+ 49 39 13
No college degree 48 41 11
College graduate 62 31 7
White 52 38 10
Nonwhite 73 23 5
2024 Biden voters 94 5 2
2024 Trump voters 19 66 15

About the poll

The findings of this Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll are based on live interviews conducted June 3 to June 5, 2024, with 800 Minnesota registered voters who indicated they are likely to vote in the November general election. The poll was conducted for the Star Tribune, Minnesota Public Radio News and KARE 11 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy Inc.
Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Minnesota voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county. The interviews were conducted via land line (19%) and cellphone (81%).
The margin of sampling error for this sample of 800 registered voters, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin of error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.
The self-identified party affiliation of the respondents is 35% Democrats, 31% Republicans and 34% independents or other.
Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion surveys, such as nonresponse, question wording or context effects. In addition, news events may have affected opinions during the period the poll was taken.
The demographic profile of this poll of likely voters is an accurate reflection of their respective voter populations. This determination is based on more than 100 statewide polls conducted by Mason-Dixon in Minnesota over the past 36 years – a period that spans eight presidential election cycles that began in 1988.
Readers can e-mail questions to matt.delong@startribune.com.
PARTY ID
DFL/Democrat 282 (35%)
Republican 249 (31%)
Independent/ other 269 (34%)
AGE
18-34 124 (16%)
35-49 236 (30%)
50-64 232 (29%)
65+ 205 (26%)
Refused 3 (<1%)
RACE
White/Caucasian 692 (87%)
Black/African American 43 (5%)
Hispanic/Latino 37 (5%)
Asian/Pacific Islander 15 (2%)
Other 7 (1%)
Refused 6 (1%)
GENDER ID
Men 383 (48%)
Women 414 (52%)
Other 3 (<1%)
REGION
Hennepin/Ramsey 260 (33%)
Rest of metro 215 (27%)
Southern Minnesota 175 (22%)
Northern Minnesota 150 (19%)
EDUCATION
High school or less 167 (21%)
Some college/Vocational 254 (32%)
College graduate 240 (30%)
Graduate degree 133 (17%)
Refused 6 (1%)
2020 VOTE
Joe Biden 381 (48%)
Donald Trump 333 (42%)
Other 16 (2%)
Did not vote 39 (5%)
Not sure/Refused 31 (4%)
INTERVIEW
Land line 154 (19%)
Cell Phone 646 (81%)